Greninja ex is why anyone still opens Twilight Masquerade. The Special Illustration Rare sits around $360 in our July 2026 snapshot — more than the next two cards combined — and it's quietly become one of the Scarlet & Violet era's blue-chip pulls while the set around it faded to mid-tier prices.
Twilight Masquerade released May 24, 2024, set in the Kitakami land of the Teal Mask DLC: Ogerpon in her four masks, the loyal three, and a story arc starring Kieran and Carmine. It's an art-forward set — moody, painterly Illustration Rares that collectors rate higher than the market does. That gap between artistic reputation and actual prices is the interesting part.
Twilight Masquerade chase cards
Approximate snapshot prices:
- Greninja ex (SIR) — about $360
- Perrin (SIR) — about $180
- Eevee (Illustration Rare) — about $88
- Carmine (SIR) — about $76
- Chansey (Illustration Rare) — about $58
- Bloodmoon Ursaluna ex (SIR) — about $42
Two trainers in the top four is unusual — Perrin's photographer-with-Growlithe art became an instant classic, and it's a reminder that alt-art premiums follow the illustration, not the Pokémon's tournament resume. Notice also what's missing: Ogerpon. The set's cover star has four ex cards and none of them crack the top table. Masks don't pay the bills; frogs do.
Pull rates: standard SV slots
The calculator models Twilight Masquerade with the usual SV structure. Community estimates:
- Illustration Rare: ~11% of packs
- Special Illustration Rare: ~3% (roughly 1 in 33 packs)
- Hyper Rare (gold): ~1.2%
- Holo slot: ~30% Double Rare, ~10% Ultra Rare, ~5% ACE SPEC
These are community-sampled estimates. The usual arithmetic applies: a 36-pack box averages about one SIR, and with a long SIR list, the Greninja specifically is a genuine long shot. Most boxes cash out with a $40–80 SIR or a handful of $15–60 Illustration Rares.
Product EV: mid-tier everywhere
July 2026 snapshot numbers:
| Product | Price | EV | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack (loose) | $8.39 | $6.29 | -27% |
| Booster Box (36) | $357.03 | $226.31 | -39% |
| Elite Trainer Box (9) | $117.23 | $56.58 | -48% |
| Booster Bundle (6) | $67.15 | $37.72 | -50% |
Loose packs at -27% are among the friendlier rips in the SV era — a function of soft pack prices, not strong EV. The box at -39% is unremarkable. The oddity is the bundle: at $67.15 it costs $11.20 per pack when loose packs go for $8.39, inverting the usual bundle discount. Bundles are normally the cheap route; here they're not, so check per-pack math before assuming. (What EV does and doesn't tell you about a box is worth understanding before spending $357 — see what EV really tells you about a booster box.)
Prices move — run the live numbers for Twilight Masquerade before you commit.
Verdict: singles first, art collectors second
- Buy singles if you want the cards. The full six-card chase above runs about $800, and roughly $440 of that is Greninja and Perrin. Everything else in this beautiful set is startlingly affordable — most IRs sit under $30.
- Rip loose packs if you want the experience; -27% is a reasonable entertainment tax and the art makes even low-value pulls satisfying.
- The box is a coin flip on Greninja. At $357 you need the ~$360 frog to break even, and you probably won't pull it.
- Sealed hold is a middling thesis: one strong chase card, good art pedigree, but it lacks the demand engine of Surging Sparks' Pikachu or a Prismatic-style shiny gimmick.
FAQ
What is the Greninja ex SIR from Twilight Masquerade worth?
About $360 as of our July 2026 snapshot. It has been the set's flagship since release and has held value better than the sealed product around it.
Why is the Perrin card so expensive?
Art and demand, not playability. The SIR Perrin is one of the era's most-loved trainer illustrations, and full-art trainers with standout art routinely outprice most Pokémon in their own set.
Is Twilight Masquerade a good set to invest in sealed?
It's a middling case. The -39% box margin means you're paying a real premium over card value today, and the set lacks a second demand driver behind Greninja.