Outsiders Pull Rates & Pack EV — Worth Ripping?

Right now: the best rip in Outsiders is the Booster Box (24 packs) at $76.79 against $393.89 of expected pulls — a +336% margin after ~15% selling fees, and a 95% chance it actually pays for itself. Figures refresh every two hours.

Outsiders is a Flesh and Blood set released 2023-03-24. This page tracks whether its sealed products are worth opening: live TCGPlayer market prices for every product, the expected value of the cards inside, and the pull-rate model behind the math.

Booster pack with a rare slot, a Majestic-or-better slot (Legendary, Marvel and Fabled are the roughly 1-in-30-and-rarer chases) and a cold-foil slot; 24 packs per box. Pull rates are community estimates.

Sealed products: price vs. expected value

ProductMargin after ~15% feesMarket priceEV of pullsOdds it pays for itself
Booster Pack +40% $9.98 $16.41 16%
Booster Box (24 packs) +336% $76.79 $393.89 95%

Pull-rate model

Outsiders packs hold 15 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.

SlotOutcomeEst. chance
Rare slotRare100%
Majestic slotMajestic93%
Majestic slotMarvel4%
Majestic slotLegendary2.5%
Majestic slotFabled0.5%
Cold-foil slotCold-Foil Common80%
Cold-foil slotCold-Foil Rare18%
Cold-foil slotCold-Foil Majestic2%

Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.

FAQ

What are the odds a Booster Box (24 packs) of Outsiders pays for itself?

About 95% after ~15% selling fees (98% before fees) as of 2026-09-11, computed from the exact outcome distribution of the Outsiders pack model rather than a simulation. The median Booster Box (24 packs) returns $224.51 of cards after fees against its $76.79 price, and the chance of at least doubling your money is 69%. These odds refresh with every two-hourly price update.

🎴 Rip a Outsiders pack yourself — simulated, real odds, live prices →