Right now: the best rip in Outsiders is the Booster Box (24 packs) at $80.85 against $545.91 of expected pulls — a +474% margin after ~15% selling fees, and a 99% chance it actually pays for itself. Figures refresh every two hours.
Outsiders (March 24, 2023) is a Flesh and Blood booster set in the standard format, fifteen cards per pack, 24 packs per box, a rare slot, a Majestic-or-better slot and a cold-foil slot, with a short, expensive top end: three Marvels and one Fabled. Sealed has split hard, loose packs priced far above their per-pack share of a box, so the two product rows tell different stories.
The Majestic slot pays Majestic 93% of the time, Marvel about 1 in 25, Legendary about 1 in 40 and Fabled about 1 in 200. Codex of Frailty's Marvel is the outlier chase, with the Codex of Bloodrot and Codex of Inertia Marvels behind it; Plague Hive is the Fabled, and the extended-art Trench of Sunken Treasure and Redback Shroud lead seven Legendaries, with Flick Knives rounding out the list.
Products are loose packs and the 24-pack box. With only three Marvels priced, a Marvel hit at roughly one per box is always a Codex, which makes the box EV unusually concentrated in three cards; the pack row, at its premium, has looked far less generous. Rates are community estimates on a shared Flesh and Blood template. See the live fee-adjusted numbers below.
Sealed products: price vs. expected value
| Product | Margin after ~15% fees | Market price | EV of pulls | Odds it pays for itself |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | +96% | $9.88 | $22.75 | 19% |
| Booster Box (24 packs) | +474% | $80.85 | $545.91 | 99% |
Pull-rate model
Outsiders packs hold 15 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.
| Slot | Outcome | Est. chance |
|---|---|---|
| Rare slot | Rare | 100% |
| Majestic slot | Majestic | 93% |
| Majestic slot | Marvel | 4% |
| Majestic slot | Legendary | 2.5% |
| Majestic slot | Fabled | 0.5% |
| Cold-foil slot | Cold-Foil Common | 80% |
| Cold-foil slot | Cold-Foil Rare | 18% |
| Cold-foil slot | Cold-Foil Majestic | 2% |
Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.
FAQ
What are the chase cards in Outsiders?
The Marvel Codex of Frailty leads by a distance, with the Codex of Bloodrot and Codex of Inertia Marvels behind it. Plague Hive is the Fabled, and extended-art Trench of Sunken Treasure and Redback Shroud plus Flick Knives head the Legendaries.
Why do Outsiders packs and boxes model so differently?
Because loose packs have priced well above a box's per-pack cost. The EV per pack is identical in both rows; only the entry price changes, so the box row has carried a much larger fee-adjusted margin. Check the current gap in the table.
How many packs are in an Outsiders booster box?
24 packs of 15 cards. By community-estimated rates a box averages about one Marvel and a bit over half a Legendary, and turns up Plague Hive in roughly one box in eight.
What are the odds a Booster Box (24 packs) of Outsiders pays for itself?
About 99% after ~15% selling fees (100% before fees) as of 2026-10-27, computed from the exact outcome distribution of the Outsiders pack model rather than a simulation. The median Booster Box (24 packs) returns $310.09 of cards after fees against its $80.85 price, and the chance of at least doubling your money is 77%. These odds refresh with every two-hourly price update.
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