Lorcana's pack math is simple and brutal: every 12-card booster guarantees one rare-or-better and one foil, and nearly all of the expected value sits in the Enchanted tier — cards that show up in roughly 1 in 50 packs by community estimates. That means most packs return bulk, most boxes miss the top tier entirely, and the sensible question isn't what you could pull but what the average pack actually pays back. This page answers that with live TCGPlayer prices, refreshed every two hours, for every Lorcana set we track.
The table ranks all twelve sets by expected margin — EV per pack against what sealed actually costs, after a fee haircut for selling your pulls. The spread is wide: settled 2024 sets like Into the Inklands price the Enchanted lottery cheapest, while collector-premium products like The First Chapter and the allocated Fabled set charge several times more for the same odds. Click through to any set for slot-by-slot odds, per-product EV and a straight verdict on ripping versus buying singles.
| # | Set | Fee-adj. margin | Best product | Released |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Winterspell | −20% | Booster Box | 2026 |
| 2 | Whispers in the Well | −28% | Booster Box | 2025 |
| 3 | Reign of Jafar | −39% | Booster Box | 2025 |
| 4 | Archazia's Island | −45% | Booster Box | 2025 |
| 5 | Shimmering Skies | −57% | Booster Pack | 2024 |
| 6 | Rise of the Floodborn | −57% | Booster Pack | 2023 |
| 7 | Azurite Sea | −58% | Booster Box | 2024 |
| 8 | Into the Inklands | −59% | Booster Pack | 2024 |
| 9 | Wilds Unknown | −59% | Booster Box | 2026 |
| 10 | The First Chapter | −61% | Booster Pack | 2023 |
| 11 | Ursula's Return | −62% | Booster Pack | 2024 |
| 12 | Fabled | −70% | Booster Pack | 2025 |
Rankings move with the market — figures refresh every two hours from TCGPlayer data. Click any set for its pull-rate model and product-by-product breakdown.
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FAQ
How does Worth the Rip calculate Lorcana pack EV?
We multiply each pack slot's estimated pull rate by the average live TCGPlayer market price of the cards at that rarity, then sum across all slots in the pack. Every card in a set feeds the average, so EV moves as singles prices move.
Why does the calculator apply a fee haircut?
Turning pulls into cash means marketplace fees and shipping. We discount raw EV by roughly 15% so the number reflects what you'd realistically net selling your cards, not sticker value.
How fresh are the prices on these pages?
Prices refresh from TCGPlayer every two hours. EV, margins and product tables all recompute on the same cadence.
Are Lorcana pull rates official?
No. Ravensburger doesn't publish pull rates, so we use community estimates from large samples of recorded box openings. Treat them as good approximations, not guarantees.
Does positive EV mean I'll profit from opening packs?
No. EV is a long-run average; a single box's result is dominated by whether you hit an Enchanted. Even positive-EV product loses money for most individual buyers, and most sealed Lorcana is negative-EV at market prices to begin with.