Right now: the best rip in Usurp the Shadow Throne is the Booster Box (24 packs) at $101.67 against $303.52 of expected pulls — a +154% margin after ~15% selling fees, and a 100% chance it actually pays for itself. Figures refresh every two hours.
Usurp the Shadow Throne releases September 25, 2026 as a Flesh and Blood booster set in the standard format: fifteen cards per pack, 24 packs per box, with a rare slot, a Majestic-or-better slot and a cold-foil slot. Every sealed price is a presale still settling, and the card list has no priced singles yet, so this page models the format rather than the set.
The model applies the shared Flesh and Blood template: the Majestic slot pays Majestic 93%, Marvel about 1 in 25, Legendary about 1 in 40 and Fabled about 1 in 200, and the cold-foil slot pays a foil Rare about 18% and a foil Majestic about 1 in 50. Until singles list, each tier is valued at a static estimate; no chase cards can be named yet.
Products are loose packs and the 24-pack box. Presale margins on a set like this tend to read negative by construction, since presale sealed carries hype and static tier estimates don't, so the live table is more useful for the pack-versus-box gap than for a verdict. Rates are community estimates. Once singles get market prices, the refresh replaces the placeholders and the numbers below will move.
Sealed products: price vs. expected value
| Product | Margin after ~15% fees | Market price | EV of pulls | Odds it pays for itself |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | +79% | $6.00 | $12.65 | 39% |
| Booster Box (24 packs) | +154% | $101.67 | $303.52 | 100% |
Pull-rate model
Usurp the Shadow Throne packs hold 15 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.
| Slot | Outcome | Est. chance |
|---|---|---|
| Rare slot | Rare | 100% |
| Majestic slot | Majestic | 93% |
| Majestic slot | Marvel | 4% |
| Majestic slot | Legendary | 2.5% |
| Majestic slot | Fabled | 0.5% |
| Cold-foil slot | Cold-Foil Common | 80% |
| Cold-foil slot | Cold-Foil Rare | 18% |
| Cold-foil slot | Cold-Foil Majestic | 2% |
Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.
FAQ
When does Usurp the Shadow Throne release?
September 25, 2026. Until then the pack and booster-box prices on this page are presales, and the EV is built from static per-tier estimates rather than priced singles, so expect both sides of the calculation to move after launch.
How many packs are in a Usurp the Shadow Throne booster box?
24 packs of 15 cards, the standard Flesh and Blood booster box. By community-estimated rates that averages about one Marvel per box, a Legendary in a bit under half of boxes, and a Fabled in roughly one box in eight.
Are there chase cards listed for Usurp the Shadow Throne yet?
Not yet. No singles have market prices, so the chase column is empty and the EV uses static tier estimates. Once TCGPlayer lists the set, the two-hourly refresh swaps in real prices and named chases appear here.
What are the odds a Booster Box (24 packs) of Usurp the Shadow Throne pays for itself?
About 100% after ~15% selling fees (100% before fees) as of 2026-10-27, computed from the exact outcome distribution of the Usurp the Shadow Throne pack model rather than a simulation. The median Booster Box (24 packs) returns $233.35 of cards after fees against its $101.67 price, and the chance of at least doubling your money is 63%. These odds refresh with every two-hourly price update.
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