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Instant search across every card in all 10 games — Pokémon, Magic, Lorcana, Yu-Gi-Oh!, One Piece, Star Wars, Digimon, Flesh and Blood, DBS Fusion World & Weiss Schwarz. Click a result to open its set.
🔥 Best value to rip right now
Every sealed product across all 10 games, ranked by expected profit margin — EV of the pulls vs the current TCGPlayer sealed price. Click any row to load it into the calculator.
How is this calculated?
- Slot model. Each pack is a fixed number of cards. The "interesting" slots (Rare, Hit, Foil…) each draw a rarity from community-estimate per-set pull rates; the rest are bulk commons/uncommons at a nominal $0.05.
- EV per pack = Σ (probability of rarity × average market price of cards at that rarity), summed across every slot.
- Live prices. Card prices are TCGPlayer market averages. Pokémon renders instantly from this site's regularly refreshed pokemontcg.io mirror, then revalidates against the live API in the background when the mirror is over an hour old; the other nine games are mirrored from TCGCSV's 2-hourly snapshot.
- Selling friction (~15% by default) approximates TCGPlayer's ~10.25% fee + $0.30/order + shipping + time. Toggle it off in the product panel to see raw market-price EV.
- Alt-arts & promos sharing a rarity code (e.g. "Manga", "Showcase", "Parallel") are excluded from the rarity bucket average so a single $1000 Manga variant doesn't drag the typical SR price up.
- Presale sets (release date still ahead) are in the calculator and have set pages, but aren't ranked here: until release the singles list is a handful of hype-priced chase cards and the sealed price is a presale ask, so their EV is speculation rather than a market.
- Odds is the exact probability that the rip's pulls cover its price — read off each product's full outcome distribution (the pack model convolved with itself once per pack, by FFT), not simulated. Margin is the average; odds are how often you actually come out ahead, and the two rank differently on purpose.
Pick a set
Product
Expected value & profit/loss
Pack contents & pull rates
Outcome distribution
EV is just the mean — this is the spread you'd actually experience. The tiles are read off the exact distribution of this rip (computed, not sampled); the bars are a Monte Carlo of 10,000 openings with the exact density drawn over them, so you can see the simulation converge.
Odds as you open more
Not a simulation. The odds engine convolves the pack model with itself — once per pack, by FFT — for the exact probability of being ahead after any number of packs, and works the chase odds in closed form. It's the answer to "should I open a box or just a few packs?"
Chase odds
How the exact odds are computed
A pack is a sum of independent slot draws — the same slot model shown in the pull-rate table, drawing specific cards from their live price pools. The engine places each slot on a fine money lattice with a mean-preserving split (so the lattice pack has exactly the model's EV), builds the single-pack distribution, then raises its Fourier transform to the N-th power and inverts it to get the N-pack distribution — the aggregate-loss FFT method from actuarial mathematics, with the grid padded so nothing wraps around. A single pack is enumerated outright, with no lattice at all.
Past the FFT budget (tens of thousands of packs) it switches to the Lugannani–Rice saddlepoint approximation evaluated from the pack's exact cumulant generating function, which is accurate to a fraction of a percent at that scale. Chase-card odds are closed form: 1 − (1 − q)N for a per-pack chance q. None of these numbers carry simulation noise; their only approximations are the community pull-rate estimates and the independence assumptions listed under limitations.
Simulate a single rip
Roll the dice on the chosen number of products and see what you actually pull.
Chase cards in this set
Top cards by live TCGPlayer market price — these drive most of the variance.
💎 Grading ROI — worth slabbing?
Pulled a chase card? See whether a PSA/CGC/Beckett submission beats selling it raw: expected slab value across grade outcomes, minus grading & selling fees, vs. the raw price today. Slab prices are estimates from the raw price (tiered multipliers with a slab-floor) — edit them with real eBay sold comps for your card. New to grading? Read our grading explainer and grading arbitrage guides.
Estimated slab resale prices (editable)
Auto-estimated from the raw price whenever you change cards; your manual edits stick until the next card change.
Top grading candidates in this set
Every chase card in the set run through the same math at your current service, cost and gem-rate settings, using auto-estimated slab prices. Click a row to load it into the calculator above.
Grading fees are approximate published rates and change often; declared-value tiers, sub minimums and bulk requirements apply. Slab price estimates are rough heuristics, not market data — always check real sold comps before submitting.
All cards in this set
Live thumbnails & market prices for every card in the set. Hover for full art — click for the TCGPlayer listing.
Assumptions & limitations
- Pull rates are community estimates, not official. None of TPCi, Konami, or Bandai publishes them. Real distributions vary between sets and printings — Yu-Gi-Oh! and One Piece pull rates are especially approximate since fewer pack-opening studies exist.
- Card prices for Pokémon are TCGPlayer market averages from pokemontcg.io — served instantly from this site's regularly refreshed mirror and revalidated live in the background when the mirror is over an hour old. The EV uses the average across all cards in a rarity tier; the Monte Carlo and rip simulator draw specific cards from the tier (equally likely, rescaled so the mean still matches the EV) once live prices load, so the distribution tails reflect real card prices.
- Card prices for Yu-Gi-Oh! and One Piece come from the 2-hourly TCGCSV snapshot (no live in-browser API exists). Each rarity is averaged across every card carrying that rarity in the set.
- Sealed prices for all games come from the same 2-hourly TCGCSV snapshot (TCGPlayer's market feed). Local retail prices can differ substantially.
- Pack counts are nominal. ETBs and collection boxes occasionally ship with promo packs or pack-count revisions; the number shown is the most common configuration.
- Multi-variant products (e.g. Evolving Skies ETBs come in two artwork variants, Burst Protocol has 1st Edition vs Unlimited) are represented by one canonical TCGPlayer SKU — prices for the other variant can differ.
- Bulk commons/uncommons are valued at a nominal $0.05 each for EV. In practice they're rarely sellable individually.
- The rip simulator is independent draws per slot using the listed chances, with every card in a tier equally likely (short prints and print-run skews aren't modeled). Real packs also have correlations (e.g. guaranteed hits, anti-collision logic between rarity tiers) that the simulator doesn't model.
- Yu-Gi-Oh! / One Piece set logos aren't shown — pokemontcg.io is Pokémon-only and TCGCSV doesn't supply set-level artwork. Individual card images are taken from the TCGPlayer CDN.
- Exact odds are exact for the model, not for reality. "Chance to profit", the percentiles, and the odds-by-pack-count curve are computed from the pack model's actual probability distribution (FFT convolution; a saddlepoint approximation past tens of thousands of packs), so they carry no simulation noise — but they inherit every assumption above: estimated pull rates, independent draws, equal odds within a rarity, mean-rescaled card pools. Named-card odds assume no short prints.
- Selling friction (~15% by default) approximates the gap between TCGPlayer's "market price" and what a typical seller actually nets: ~10.25% transaction fee + $0.30/order + shipping you cover + time. Toggle it off in the product panel to see raw market-price EV instead.
- "Hit slot" baseline: when the random hit slot in a pack doesn't pull an Illustration Rare or chase card, modern packs still contain a Holo Rare-equivalent foil. The rate tables now include a "Holo Rare (baseline)" row absorbing that ~85% of cases, so EV no longer treats those slots as bulk filler.
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