Right now: the best rip in Pitch Black is the Booster Box (36 packs) at $197.59 against $256.46 of expected pulls — a +10% margin after ~15% selling fees, and a 56% chance it actually pays for itself. Figures refresh every two hours.
Pitch Black is the fifth main set of the Mega Evolution era, released July 17, 2026, with Mega Darkrai ex as the headline chase. It follows the era's standard blueprint: 10-card packs, no ACE SPEC tier, and gold Mega Hyper Rares sitting at the top of the rarity ladder.
As with every Mega Evolution set, our pull-rate table uses early community estimates — the era is still young and the studies are thinner than for Scarlet & Violet. The structure is familiar, though: most packs return bulk plus a baseline holo, and the EV lives almost entirely in the Special Illustration Rare and Mega Hyper Rare tail.
This is a fresh release, so treat today's numbers as a snapshot of a moving market. Launch-window packs are usually priced above their long-run level, and singles — especially the chase Megas — tend to fall as supply arrives. Our prices refresh every two hours, so the table below tracks the settling in real time.
Sealed products: price vs. expected value
| Product | Margin after ~15% fees | Market price | EV of pulls | Odds it pays for itself |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | +3% | $5.90 | $7.12 | 24% |
| Elite Trainer Box | −23% | $70.36 | $64.12 | 26% |
| Booster Bundle | −4% | $37.75 | $42.74 | 27% |
| Booster Box (36 packs) | +10% | $197.59 | $256.46 | 56% |
| Build & Battle Box | −35% | $37.13 | $28.50 | 16% |
Pull-rate model
Pitch Black packs hold 10 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.
| Slot | Outcome | Est. chance |
|---|---|---|
| Reverse Holo | Reverse Holo | 100% |
| Holo Rare slot | Rare | 58% |
| Holo Rare slot | Double Rare | 32% |
| Holo Rare slot | Ultra Rare | 10% |
| Hit slot | Holo Rare (baseline) | 84.8% |
| Hit slot | Illustration Rare | 11% |
| Hit slot | Special Illustration Rare | 3% |
| Hit slot | Mega Hyper Rare (Gold) | 1.2% |
Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.
FAQ
What is the chase card in Pitch Black?
Mega Darkrai ex headlines the set, with the Special Illustration Rare and Mega Hyper Rare versions of the era's Megas carrying most of the single-card value. As usual, a handful of cards account for the bulk of a pack's EV.
Are Pitch Black pull rates official?
No — The Pokémon Company doesn't publish pull rates. Our table uses early community estimates for the Mega Evolution era, which are rougher than estimates for older, heavily-studied sets.
Should I buy Pitch Black now or wait?
Fresh sets usually carry a launch premium on sealed while singles prices are at their peak. If you're buying to rip for value rather than fun, history favors waiting a few months for both to settle — check the live EV above to see where it stands today.
What are the odds a Booster Box (36 packs) of Pitch Black pays for itself?
About 56% after ~15% selling fees (73% before fees) as of 2026-09-11, computed from the exact outcome distribution of the Pitch Black pack model rather than a simulation. The median Booster Box (36 packs) returns $208.54 of cards after fees against its $197.59 price, and the chance of at least doubling your money is 2%. These odds refresh with every two-hourly price update.
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