Right now: the best rip in Chaos Rising is the Booster Box (36 packs) at $184.97 against $256.46 of expected pulls — a +18% margin after ~15% selling fees. Figures refresh every two hours.
Chaos Rising hit shelves on May 22, 2026 as the fourth main-line Mega Evolution set, and it arrived without the launch premium that usually buries new Pokémon product — sealed has recently traded close to, and at times below, what the average pack returns in singles. That's rare, and it's why this page exists.
The pack math follows the era's standard: ten cards, a guaranteed reverse holo, and a rare slot that lands a plain Rare about 58% of the time, a Double Rare roughly 1 in 3, and an Ultra Rare 1 in 10. The hit slot carries the ceiling — community estimates put Illustration Rares around 1 in 9 packs, Special Illustration Rares near 1 in 33, and the gold Mega Hyper Rare at roughly 1 in 83. There's no ACE SPEC tier in this era; the gold Megas replaced Scarlet & Violet's Hyper Rares at the top.
Products run the full spread — loose packs, a 9-pack Elite Trainer Box, 6-pack Booster Bundle, 4-pack Build & Battle, and 36-pack booster boxes. The live table below shows which one currently clears the fee haircut. Odds are early community estimates, so treat them as directional.
Sealed products: price vs. expected value
| Product | Margin after ~15% fees | Market price | EV of pulls |
|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | +0% | $6.04 | $7.12 |
| Elite Trainer Box | −24% | $72.03 | $64.12 |
| Booster Bundle | −10% | $40.47 | $42.74 |
| Booster Box (36 packs) | +18% | $184.97 | $256.46 |
| Build & Battle Box | −42% | $42.00 | $28.50 |
Pull-rate model
Chaos Rising packs hold 10 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.
| Slot | Outcome | Est. chance |
|---|---|---|
| Reverse Holo | Reverse Holo | 100% |
| Holo Rare slot | Rare | 58% |
| Holo Rare slot | Double Rare | 32% |
| Holo Rare slot | Ultra Rare | 10% |
| Hit slot | Holo Rare (baseline) | 84.8% |
| Hit slot | Illustration Rare | 11% |
| Hit slot | Special Illustration Rare | 3% |
| Hit slot | Mega Hyper Rare (Gold) | 1.2% |
Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.
FAQ
How many packs are in a Chaos Rising booster box?
36 packs of 10 cards each. The Elite Trainer Box holds 9 packs, the Booster Bundle 6, and the Build & Battle Box 4.
What is the top chase tier in Chaos Rising?
The gold Mega Hyper Rare — the Mega Evolution era's replacement for the Hyper Rare tier — at roughly 1 in 83 packs by community estimates. Special Illustration Rares land about 1 in 33 packs.
Are Chaos Rising pull rates official?
No. The Pokémon Company doesn't publish pull rates. The odds on this page are early community estimates for the Mega Evolution era and should be treated as approximate.
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