Dengeki Bunko Pull Rates & Pack EV — Worth Ripping?

Right now: the best rip in Dengeki Bunko is the Booster Pack at $3.52 against $11.66 of expected pulls — a +182% margin after ~15% selling fees, and a 18% chance it actually pays for itself. Figures refresh every two hours.

Dengeki Bunko is a Weiss Schwarz set released 2024-10-25. This page tracks whether its sealed products are worth opening: live TCGPlayer market prices for every product, the expected value of the cards inside, and the pull-rate model behind the math.

9-card pack, 16 packs per box: most packs carry a Rare plus a foil, with RRR and rarer tiers landing about 1 in 8–10 packs. Signed and serial-numbered variants aren't modeled. Pull rates are community estimates. TCGPlayer hasn't priced every SKU yet (Booster Pack price estimated from the Booster Box (16 packs)); the refresh Action swaps in market prices as they appear.

Sealed products: price vs. expected value

ProductMargin after ~15% feesMarket priceEV of pullsOdds it pays for itself
Booster Pack +182% $3.52 $11.66 18%
Booster Box (16 packs) +66% $95.38 $186.55 51%

Pull-rate model

Dengeki Bunko packs hold 9 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.

SlotOutcomeEst. chance
Rare slotCommon50%
Rare slotUncommon30%
Rare slotRare20%
Hit slotRare (foil)55%
Hit slotSuper Rare25%
Hit slotTriple Rare (RRR)12%
Hit slotSpecial Rare6%
Hit slotSuper-Special2%

Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.

FAQ

What are the odds a Booster Pack of Dengeki Bunko pays for itself?

About 18% after ~15% selling fees (20% before fees) as of 2026-09-11, computed from the exact outcome distribution of the Dengeki Bunko pack model rather than a simulation. The median Booster Pack returns $0.81 of cards after fees against its $3.52 price, and the chance of at least doubling your money is 14%. These odds refresh with every two-hourly price update.

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