Rise of the Duelist Pull Rates & Pack EV — Worth Ripping?

Right now: the best rip in Rise of the Duelist is the Booster Box [1st Ed] (24 packs) at $74.20 against $78.75 of expected pulls — a −10% margin after ~15% selling fees, and a 23% chance it actually pays for itself. Figures refresh every two hours.

Rise of the Duelist is a Yu-Gi-Oh! set released 2020/08/07. This page tracks whether its sealed products are worth opening: live TCGPlayer market prices for every product, the expected value of the cards inside, and the pull-rate model behind the math.

Standard core booster: 9 cards per pack, 24 packs per box, about one foil (Super Rare or better) per pack with Ultras roughly 1 in 6, Secrets 1 in 12 and the top tier about one per case. Sealed products listed are the 1st Edition print run where TCGPlayer separates them. Pull rates are community estimates.

Sealed products: price vs. expected value

ProductMargin after ~15% feesMarket priceEV of pullsOdds it pays for itself
Booster Pack [1st Ed] −61% $7.22 $3.28 9%
Booster Box [1st Ed] (24 packs) −10% $74.20 $78.75 23%

Pull-rate model

Rise of the Duelist packs hold 9 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.

SlotOutcomeEst. chance
Rare slotRare100%
Foil hit slotSuper Rare65%
Foil hit slotUltra Rare27%
Foil hit slotSecret Rare7%
Foil hit slotStarlight / QC Secret1%

Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.

FAQ

What are the odds a Booster Box [1st Ed] (24 packs) of Rise of the Duelist pays for itself?

About 23% after ~15% selling fees (33% before fees) as of 2026-09-11, computed from the exact outcome distribution of the Rise of the Duelist pack model rather than a simulation. The median Booster Box [1st Ed] (24 packs) returns $53.99 of cards after fees against its $74.20 price, and the chance of at least doubling your money is 6%. These odds refresh with every two-hourly price update.

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