Supreme Darkness Booster EV & Pull Rates

Right now: the best rip in Supreme Darkness is the Booster Box [1st Ed] (24 packs) at $44.85 against $95.15 of expected pulls — a +80% margin after ~15% selling fees, and a 62% chance it actually pays for itself. Figures refresh every two hours.

Supreme Darkness (January 24, 2025) is a standard modern core booster: nine cards per pack, one guaranteed foil hit, 24 packs per box, with a 25-card Quarter Century Secret Rare pool as the chase tier. It landed mid-format without a single defining chase card, which kept hype — and sealed prices — modest from day one.

Cheap sealed changes the math. Pack EV is generated almost entirely by the foil slot — Secret Rares around 1 in 14 packs, Starlight or QC Secret hits near 1 in 100 by community estimates — and that EV doesn't care what you paid for the pack. A set nobody's excited about can quietly out-margin a hyped one purely because the entry price is lower.

That's the Supreme Darkness pitch: an unremarkable card list attached to favorable arithmetic. Whether the discount is still steep enough to stay positive after the fee haircut is a live question — literally. The tables below update every couple of hours.

Sealed products: price vs. expected value

ProductMargin after ~15% feesMarket priceEV of pullsOdds it pays for itself
Booster Pack [1st Ed] +51% $2.23 $3.96 19%
Booster Box [1st Ed] (24 packs) +80% $44.85 $95.15 62%

Pull-rate model

Supreme Darkness packs hold 9 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.

SlotOutcomeEst. chance
Rare slotRare100%
Foil hit slotSuper Rare65%
Foil hit slotUltra Rare27%
Foil hit slotSecret Rare7%
Foil hit slotStarlight / QC Secret1%

Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.

FAQ

What is the chase tier in Supreme Darkness?

A 25-card Quarter Century Secret Rare parallel pool, with community estimates putting those top hits near 1 in 100 packs.

How many cards and packs come in Supreme Darkness products?

Nine cards per pack with roughly one guaranteed foil, and 24 packs per 1st Edition booster box.

Does a cheap box automatically mean good EV?

Not automatically, but it helps: expected value comes from the card pool and pull rates, so a lower sealed price improves margin without changing what's inside. The live tables show the current spread.

What are the odds a Booster Box [1st Ed] (24 packs) of Supreme Darkness pays for itself?

About 62% after ~15% selling fees (74% before fees) as of 2026-09-11, computed from the exact outcome distribution of the Supreme Darkness pack model rather than a simulation. The median Booster Box [1st Ed] (24 packs) returns $51.33 of cards after fees against its $44.85 price, and the chance of at least doubling your money is 23%. These odds refresh with every two-hourly price update.

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