Right now: the best rip in Phantasmal Flames is the Booster Pack at $10.84 against $11.39 of expected pulls — a −11% margin after ~15% selling fees. Figures refresh every two hours.
Phantasmal Flames, out November 14, 2025, is the second Mega Evolution set and the one where the era's singles market actually heated up — per-pack EV runs well above its neighbors, and sealed has recently hovered near break-even rather than the usual double-digit loss.
The structure is the era standard: ten cards, a guaranteed reverse holo, a rare slot that's a Double Rare about a third of the time and an Ultra Rare 1 in 10, and a hit slot where the money lives — an Illustration Rare roughly 1 in 9 packs, a Special Illustration Rare about 1 in 33, and the gold Mega Hyper Rare near 1 in 83. With no ACE SPEC tier in this era, the gold Megas are the ceiling, and a handful of them carry most of the set's value.
When a set sits this close to break-even, the roughly 15% fee haircut is the whole decision: rip if you'd keep the hits, buy singles if you'd sell them. The live table below has current margins for packs, bundles, ETBs and 36-pack boxes.
Sealed products: price vs. expected value
| Product | Margin after ~15% fees | Market price | EV of pulls |
|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | −11% | $10.84 | $11.39 |
| Elite Trainer Box | −43% | $153.72 | $102.48 |
| Booster Bundle | −23% | $75.01 | $68.32 |
| Booster Box (36 packs) | −19% | $428.78 | $409.93 |
| Build & Battle Box | −41% | $65.83 | $45.55 |
Pull-rate model
Phantasmal Flames packs hold 10 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.
| Slot | Outcome | Est. chance |
|---|---|---|
| Reverse Holo | Reverse Holo | 100% |
| Holo Rare slot | Rare | 58% |
| Holo Rare slot | Double Rare | 32% |
| Holo Rare slot | Ultra Rare | 10% |
| Hit slot | Holo Rare (baseline) | 84.8% |
| Hit slot | Illustration Rare | 11% |
| Hit slot | Special Illustration Rare | 3% |
| Hit slot | Mega Hyper Rare (Gold) | 1.2% |
Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.
FAQ
How many packs are in a Phantasmal Flames booster box?
36 packs of 10 cards. It also sells as a 9-pack Elite Trainer Box, a 6-pack Booster Bundle and a 4-pack Build & Battle Box.
What are the odds of a Special Illustration Rare in Phantasmal Flames?
Community estimates put Special Illustration Rares at about 1 in 33 packs, with the gold Mega Hyper Rare near 1 in 83. These are early estimates for the Mega Evolution era, not official figures.
Is ripping Phantasmal Flames profitable?
It has recently modeled close to break-even before fees, which is unusually good for modern Pokémon. After the roughly 15% selling haircut it's a coin-flip proposition — check the live margin table for the current answer.
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