Right now: the best rip in Mega Evolution is the Booster Pack at $8.00 against $7.96 of expected pulls — a −15% margin after ~15% selling fees. Figures refresh every two hours.
Mega Evolution launched September 26, 2025 and reset the Pokémon TCG: new era, new rarity ladder, no ACE SPECs, and gold Mega Hyper Rares on top. It also launched heavy — two mass-market Elite Trainer Box variants (Mega Gardevoir and Mega Lucario) and a print run to match, which is why sealed prices cooled quickly after release.
Pack structure: ten cards with a guaranteed reverse holo, a rare slot that upgrades to a Double Rare about 32% of the time and an Ultra Rare 1 in 10, and a hit slot paying an Illustration Rare roughly 1 in 9 packs, a Special Illustration Rare about 1 in 33, and a gold Mega Hyper Rare near 1 in 83. Those are early community estimates — the era was new and sample sizes were small.
Margins here have tended to sit just under water: not the disaster of a hyped special set, but not free money either. The booster box has usually been the least-bad entry, with both ETB variants priced for their accessories rather than their packs. Live numbers below.
Sealed products: price vs. expected value
| Product | Margin after ~15% fees | Market price | EV of pulls |
|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | −15% | $8.00 | $7.96 |
| Elite Trainer Box (Mega Gardevoir) | −48% | $116.59 | $71.64 |
| Elite Trainer Box (Mega Lucario) | −50% | $122.99 | $71.64 |
| Booster Bundle | −32% | $59.63 | $47.76 |
| Booster Box (36 packs) | −24% | $322.37 | $286.55 |
| Build & Battle Box | −54% | $59.41 | $31.84 |
Pull-rate model
Mega Evolution packs hold 10 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.
| Slot | Outcome | Est. chance |
|---|---|---|
| Reverse Holo | Reverse Holo | 100% |
| Holo Rare slot | Rare | 58% |
| Holo Rare slot | Double Rare | 32% |
| Holo Rare slot | Ultra Rare | 10% |
| Hit slot | Holo Rare (baseline) | 84.8% |
| Hit slot | Illustration Rare | 11% |
| Hit slot | Special Illustration Rare | 3% |
| Hit slot | Mega Hyper Rare (Gold) | 1.2% |
Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.
FAQ
What are the two Mega Evolution Elite Trainer Box variants?
Mega Gardevoir and Mega Lucario. Both hold 9 packs with identical pack odds — the difference is the styling, not the pulls.
Does the Mega Evolution set have ACE SPEC or Hyper Rare cards?
No ACE SPECs — the era dropped that tier. The gold secret tier is the Mega Hyper Rare, estimated by the community at roughly 1 in 83 packs.
How many cards are in a Mega Evolution booster pack?
10 cards, including a guaranteed reverse holo, a rare slot and a hit slot. A booster box holds 36 packs.
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