Right now: the best rip in Ascended Heroes is the Booster Pack at $13.74 against $7.12 of expected pulls — a −56% margin after ~15% selling fees, and a 5% chance it actually pays for itself. Figures refresh every two hours.
Ascended Heroes is a special set, released January 30, 2026, and it sells the special-set way: Elite Trainer Boxes, Booster Bundles and collection boxes only — no booster box, no Build & Battle. That scarcity format has historically pushed sealed prices far above what the packs return, and the EV math here has reflected it.
One honest caveat: our model runs this set on the shared Mega Evolution slot template. Its extra Mega Attack Rare chase tier and its above-average Special Illustration Rare density aren't separately modeled, so the EV shown likely runs conservative. Even with a generous mental adjustment, though, the premium on sealed has been steep enough that the gap doesn't close.
Under the template, the hit slot pays an Illustration Rare roughly 1 in 9 packs, a Special Illustration Rare about 1 in 33, and a gold Mega Hyper Rare near 1 in 83 — all early community estimates for the era. Check the live table below; if any product gets close to break-even, it'll be the bundle.
Sealed products: price vs. expected value
| Product | Margin after ~15% fees | Market price | EV of pulls | Odds it pays for itself |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | −56% | $13.74 | $7.12 | 5% |
| Elite Trainer Box | −66% | $159.22 | $64.12 | 2% |
| Booster Bundle | −58% | $85.55 | $42.74 | 8% |
Pull-rate model
Ascended Heroes packs hold 10 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.
| Slot | Outcome | Est. chance |
|---|---|---|
| Reverse Holo | Reverse Holo | 100% |
| Holo Rare slot | Rare | 58% |
| Holo Rare slot | Double Rare | 32% |
| Holo Rare slot | Ultra Rare | 10% |
| Hit slot | Holo Rare (baseline) | 84.8% |
| Hit slot | Illustration Rare | 11% |
| Hit slot | Special Illustration Rare | 3% |
| Hit slot | Mega Hyper Rare (Gold) | 1.2% |
Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.
FAQ
Does Ascended Heroes have a booster box?
No. It's a special set sold through 9-pack Elite Trainer Boxes, 6-pack Booster Bundles and collection boxes. There's no 36-pack booster box and no Build & Battle Box.
Why might the EV shown for Ascended Heroes be conservative?
The set uses the shared Mega Evolution slot template, which doesn't separately model its extra Mega Attack Rare chase tier or its above-average Special Illustration Rare density. Both would push true EV somewhat higher than the template's figure.
What is the rarest modeled pull in Ascended Heroes?
The gold Mega Hyper Rare, at roughly 1 in 83 packs by community estimates. The set's own Mega Attack Rare chase cards sit outside the model entirely.
What are the odds a Booster Pack of Ascended Heroes pays for itself?
About 5% after ~15% selling fees (5% before fees) as of 2026-09-11, computed from the exact outcome distribution of the Ascended Heroes pack model rather than a simulation. The median Booster Pack returns $3.53 of cards after fees against its $13.74 price, and the chance of at least doubling your money is 4%. These odds refresh with every two-hourly price update.
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