Commander Legends MTG Draft Booster EV & Pull Rates

Right now: the best rip in Commander Legends is the Draft Booster Box (24 packs) at $287.53 against $210.97 of expected pulls — a −38% margin after ~15% selling fees, and a 2% chance it actually pays for itself. Figures refresh every two hours.

Commander Legends (November 20, 2020) was the first set built for Commander draft. Its 20-card Draft Boosters hold two legendary cards, one rare or mythic, one traditional foil of any rarity and a run of commons and uncommons, sold 24 to a box. With so many legends to draft around, the pack is bigger than a standard Draft Booster and priced accordingly.

Vampiric Tutor, Mana Drain and Jeweled Lotus are the chase mythics, with Commander's Plate, Scroll Rack, Jeska's Will and Opposition Agent behind them. The Extended Art and Foil Etched rows that top the price list are Collector Booster treatments and can't come out of a Draft Booster; the model prices regular versions only. Below them sits a broad layer of Commander staples.

Loose packs and the 24-pack Draft Booster Box are tracked; Set and Collector Boosters aren't modeled. TCGPlayer doesn't tag which cards are legendary, so the two legend slots are priced from the set's whole uncommon, rare and mythic buckets, an approximation that may read high or low. Rarity splits are community estimates. Live numbers are below.

Sealed products: price vs. expected value

ProductMargin after ~15% feesMarket priceEV of pullsOdds it pays for itself
Draft Booster Pack −43% $13.00 $8.79 14%
Draft Booster Box (24 packs) −38% $287.53 $210.97 2%

Pull-rate model

Commander Legends packs hold 20 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.

SlotOutcomeEst. chance
Legend slot #1Uncommon legend75%
Legend slot #1Rare legend21%
Legend slot #1Mythic legend4%
Legend slot #2Uncommon legend75%
Legend slot #2Rare legend21%
Legend slot #2Mythic legend4%
Rare/Mythic slotRare86.5%
Rare/Mythic slotMythic13.5%
Foil slotCommon Foil55%
Foil slotUncommon Foil30%
Foil slotRare Foil12%
Foil slotMythic Foil3%

Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.

FAQ

How many packs are in a Commander Legends booster box?

A Draft Booster Box holds 24 packs of 20 cards. Collector Boosters were sold separately with Extended Art and Foil Etched cards and aren't modeled here.

What are the chase cards in Commander Legends?

Vampiric Tutor, Mana Drain and Jeweled Lotus, followed by Commander's Plate, Scroll Rack and Jeska's Will. Extended Art and Foil Etched versions sit above them on the list but are Collector Booster exclusives.

Are Commander Legends pull rates official?

No. The slot structure is published, but the rarity splits for the legend and foil slots are community estimates, and the legend slots are priced from whole rarity buckets because legendaries aren't tagged in the price data.

What are the odds a Draft Booster Box (24 packs) of Commander Legends pays for itself?

About 2% after ~15% selling fees (10% before fees) as of 2026-10-27, computed from the exact outcome distribution of the Commander Legends pack model rather than a simulation. The median Draft Booster Box (24 packs) returns $174.51 of cards after fees against its $287.53 price, and the chance of at least doubling your money is under 0.5%. These odds refresh with every two-hourly price update.

🎴 Rip a Commander Legends pack yourself — simulated, real odds, live prices →