Right now: the best rip in Zendikar Rising is the Draft Booster Box (36 packs) at $175.41 against $118.01 of expected pulls — a −43% margin after ~15% selling fees, and a 1% chance it actually pays for itself. Figures refresh every two hours.
Zendikar Rising, the Standard Magic set released September 25, 2020, shipped in 15-card Draft Boosters: one rare-or-mythic, three uncommons, ten commons and a land, with a foil replacing a common in about one pack in three. Draft Boosters were retired with Play Boosters in 2024, so supply is fixed, though loose packs have stayed comparatively cheap for a set of this age.
The model is the published Draft Booster collation: a mythic in about one rare slot in 7.4, a rare foil near 1 in 33 packs and a mythic foil around 1 in 200. Sea Gate Restoration and Agadeem's Awakening lead the mythics, Valakut Awakening is the top rare, and Ashaya, Soul of the Wild and Ancient Greenwarden fill out the list. Nothing here is a monster; value is spread thin.
Three products are tracked: the loose Draft Booster, the 36-pack Draft Booster Box and the 10-pack Bundle. Set and Collector Boosters have different contents and aren't modeled. Margins are negative on all three, but the cheap pack keeps them among the least bad of the draft-era sets, with the box narrowest. The live table below shows where each product stands right now.
Sealed products: price vs. expected value
| Product | Margin after ~15% fees | Market price | EV of pulls | Odds it pays for itself |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft Booster Pack | −45% | $5.03 | $3.28 | 17% |
| Draft Booster Box (36 packs) | −43% | $175.41 | $118.01 | 1% |
| Bundle (10 Draft Boosters) | −52% | $57.92 | $32.78 | 3% |
Pull-rate model
Zendikar Rising packs hold 15 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.
| Slot | Outcome | Est. chance |
|---|---|---|
| Rare/Mythic slot | Rare | 86.5% |
| Rare/Mythic slot | Mythic | 13.5% |
| Foil slot (≈1 in 3 packs) | No foil (bulk) | 67% |
| Foil slot (≈1 in 3 packs) | Common Foil | 21% |
| Foil slot (≈1 in 3 packs) | Uncommon Foil | 8.5% |
| Foil slot (≈1 in 3 packs) | Rare Foil | 3% |
| Foil slot (≈1 in 3 packs) | Mythic Foil | 0.5% |
Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.
FAQ
How many packs are in a Zendikar Rising booster box?
36 Draft Boosters of 15 cards each. The Bundle holds 10 Draft Boosters. Set Boosters and Collector Boosters were also sold for Zendikar Rising, but they have different contents and aren't modeled here.
What are the chase cards in Zendikar Rising?
Sea Gate Restoration and Agadeem's Awakening top the list in both regular and Extended Art printings, followed by Ashaya, Soul of the Wild, Valakut Awakening and Ancient Greenwarden. None is a true monster; the set's value is spread across several mid-priced mythics and rares.
Are Zendikar Rising pull rates official?
The rare-and-mythic structure is published, and the model follows that Draft Booster collation: a mythic in about one rare slot in 7.4 and a foil in roughly one pack in three. The rarity split inside the foil slot is an estimate.
What are the odds a Draft Booster Box (36 packs) of Zendikar Rising pays for itself?
About 1% after ~15% selling fees (4% before fees) as of 2026-10-27, computed from the exact outcome distribution of the Zendikar Rising pack model rather than a simulation. The median Draft Booster Box (36 packs) returns $97.35 of cards after fees against its $175.41 price, and the chance of at least doubling your money is under 0.5%. These odds refresh with every two-hourly price update.
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