Right now: the best rip in The Lost Caverns of Ixalan is the Draft Booster Box (36 packs) at $247.51 against $152.33 of expected pulls — a −48% margin after ~15% selling fees, and a 1% chance it actually pays for itself. Figures refresh every two hours.
The Lost Caverns of Ixalan is a Magic: The Gathering set released 2023-11-17. This page tracks whether its sealed products are worth opening: live TCGPlayer market prices for every product, the expected value of the cards inside, and the pull-rate model behind the math.
Draft Booster (15 cards: 1 rare or mythic, 3 uncommons, 10 commons, 1 land; a foil replaces a common in about 1 pack in 3, and mythics take about 1 rare slot in 7.4). Set Boosters and Collector Boosters have different contents and aren't modeled. Draft Boosters were retired with Play Boosters in 2024, so supply is fixed. Pull rates follow the published Draft Booster collation.
Sealed products: price vs. expected value
| Product | Margin after ~15% fees | Market price | EV of pulls | Odds it pays for itself |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft Booster Pack | −49% | $7.03 | $4.23 | 9% |
| Draft Booster Box (36 packs) | −48% | $247.51 | $152.33 | 1% |
Pull-rate model
The Lost Caverns of Ixalan packs hold 15 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.
| Slot | Outcome | Est. chance |
|---|---|---|
| Rare/Mythic slot | Rare | 86.5% |
| Rare/Mythic slot | Mythic | 13.5% |
| Foil slot (≈1 in 3 packs) | No foil (bulk) | 67% |
| Foil slot (≈1 in 3 packs) | Common Foil | 21% |
| Foil slot (≈1 in 3 packs) | Uncommon Foil | 8.5% |
| Foil slot (≈1 in 3 packs) | Rare Foil | 3% |
| Foil slot (≈1 in 3 packs) | Mythic Foil | 0.5% |
Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.
FAQ
What are the odds a Draft Booster Box (36 packs) of The Lost Caverns of Ixalan pays for itself?
About 1% after ~15% selling fees (5% before fees) as of 2026-09-11, computed from the exact outcome distribution of the The Lost Caverns of Ixalan pack model rather than a simulation. The median Draft Booster Box (36 packs) returns $123.79 of cards after fees against its $247.51 price, and the chance of at least doubling your money is under 0.5%. These odds refresh with every two-hourly price update.
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