Right now: the best rip in Murders at Karlov Manor is the Booster Pack at $4.88 against $3.26 of expected pulls — a −43% margin after ~15% selling fees. Figures refresh every two hours.
Murders at Karlov Manor (February 9, 2024) is where the Play Booster era began — the first set to merge Draft and Set Boosters into the single 14-card format every Magic set now uses. As a detective story on Ravnica it was divisive; as a pack-cracking proposition it's aged into a fairly typical negative-margin Standard set.
The chase tier is treatment-driven: borderless dossier and magnified showcase cards plus Invisible Ink foils sit at the top of the set's value, and none of those variants are captured in the base slot model. What the model does cover: one rare or mythic per pack (mythic roughly 1 in 7 packs) and one foil of any rarity, rare-or-better about 1 in 8 — community estimates in both cases.
With the set two years old, sealed prices have settled and the Bundle sometimes prices closer to its contents than the sets around it. The live tables below show today's pack, Collector Booster and Bundle math side by side.
Sealed products: price vs. expected value
| Product | Margin after ~15% fees | Market price | EV of pulls |
|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | −43% | $4.88 | $3.26 |
| Collector Booster Pack | −91% | $31.33 | $3.26 |
| Bundle | −53% | $53.40 | $29.38 |
Pull-rate model
Murders at Karlov Manor packs hold 14 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.
| Slot | Outcome | Est. chance |
|---|---|---|
| Rare/Mythic slot | Rare | 85% |
| Rare/Mythic slot | Mythic | 15% |
| Foil slot | Common Foil | 62% |
| Foil slot | Uncommon Foil | 25% |
| Foil slot | Rare Foil | 10% |
| Foil slot | Mythic Foil | 3% |
Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.
FAQ
Was Murders at Karlov Manor the first Play Booster set?
Yes — it introduced the ~14-card Play Booster in February 2024, replacing separate Draft and Set Boosters for premier Magic sets.
What are the chase cards in Murders at Karlov Manor?
The top end is treatment-driven: borderless dossier cards, magnified showcase variants, and Invisible Ink foils, all outside the base rare and foil slots.
Are these pull rates from Wizards of the Coast?
No. Wizards doesn't publish complete odds, so the slot rates here are community estimates.
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