Right now: the best rip in Shining Fates is the Booster Pack at $15.65 against $4.75 of expected pulls — a −74% margin after ~15% selling fees, and a 6% chance it actually pays for itself. Figures refresh every two hours.
Shining Fates, released February 19, 2021, is built around one idea: the Shiny Vault, a subset of shiny Pokémon with its own dedicated slot, crowned by the shiny Charizard VMAX. It's the spiritual sequel to Hidden Fates, arriving mid-boom when demand for anything shiny and Charizard-shaped was bottomless.
The structure genuinely differs from standard SWSH packs. Per the community estimates we track, the Shiny Vault slot produces some shiny card better than 1 in 3 packs, a shiny V-tier hit roughly 1 in 17, and the rainbow or gold top end near 1 in 67. Frequent small hits, rare big ones — pleasant to open, but the value curve still hangs off the Charizard.
Shining Fates was never sold in booster boxes; it's loose packs, Elite Trainer Boxes and Premium Collections, all of which have carried a collector premium since day one. The live tables below show how today's prices stack against what the packs give back.
Sealed products: price vs. expected value
| Product | Margin after ~15% fees | Market price | EV of pulls | Odds it pays for itself |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | −74% | $15.65 | $4.75 | 6% |
| Elite Trainer Box | −89% | $148.05 | $18.99 | 0% |
| Premium Collection | −89% | $215.43 | $28.48 | 0% |
Pull-rate model
Shining Fates packs hold 10 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.
| Slot | Outcome | Est. chance |
|---|---|---|
| Reverse Holo | Reverse Holo | 100% |
| Holo Rare slot | Rare Holo | 60% |
| Holo Rare slot | Rare Holo GX | 30% |
| Holo Rare slot | Rare Ultra | 10% |
| Shiny Vault slot | Holo Rare (baseline) | 62.5% |
| Shiny Vault slot | Shiny Rare (SV) | 30% |
| Shiny Vault slot | Shiny GX / V (SV) | 6% |
| Shiny Vault slot | Shiny Rainbow / Gold | 1.5% |
Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.
FAQ
What is the Shiny Vault in Shining Fates?
A subset of shiny Pokémon cards with a dedicated slot in every pack. Baby shinies are the common outcome, shiny V and VMAX cards the rare tier, and the shiny Charizard VMAX is the set's crown.
Can you buy Shining Fates booster boxes?
No — the set was never printed in 36-pack booster boxes. It reached shelves through single packs, Elite Trainer Boxes and Premium Collections.
How often do Shining Fates packs pull a shiny?
Community estimates put some Shiny Vault hit at better than 1 in 3 packs, though most are lower-tier shinies rather than the V, VMAX or gold chases.
What are the odds a Booster Pack of Shining Fates pays for itself?
About 6% after ~15% selling fees (6% before fees) as of 2026-09-11, computed from the exact outcome distribution of the Shining Fates pack model rather than a simulation. The median Booster Pack returns $1.54 of cards after fees against its $15.65 price, and the chance of at least doubling your money is under 0.5%. These odds refresh with every two-hourly price update.
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