Right now: the best rip in Champion's Path is the Booster Pack at $18.70 against $4.20 of expected pulls — a −81% margin after ~15% selling fees. Figures refresh every two hours.
Champion's Path, released September 25, 2020, is the purest single-card lottery of the Sword & Shield era. The rainbow Charizard VMAX is the entire show — a special set engineered around one chase at the height of the boom, sold only through Elite Trainer Boxes, Premium Collections and pin collections rather than booster boxes.
Community estimates put the rainbow tier at roughly 1 in 50 packs, with full and alt arts near 1 in 12 and golds around 1 in 100. Run the numbers on that and the problem is obvious: outside the Charizard and a thin band of secondary hits, the checklist is shallow, so a typical pack returns very little. Sets like this are why we keep saying the average pack subsidizes someone else's highlight reel.
If you want the Charizard, the boring move is buying the single. If you want the gamble anyway, the live tables below show exactly what each product costs against what it returns today.
Sealed products: price vs. expected value
| Product | Margin after ~15% fees | Market price | EV of pulls |
|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | −81% | $18.70 | $4.20 |
| Elite Trainer Box | −93% | $211.58 | $16.79 |
| Premium Collection | −83% | $129.13 | $25.18 |
Pull-rate model
Champion's Path packs hold 10 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.
| Slot | Outcome | Est. chance |
|---|---|---|
| Reverse Holo | Reverse Holo | 100% |
| Holo Rare slot | Rare Holo | 66% |
| Holo Rare slot | Rare Holo V | 27% |
| Holo Rare slot | Rare Holo VMAX | 7% |
| Hit slot | Holo Rare (baseline) | 89% |
| Hit slot | Full / Alt Art | 8% |
| Hit slot | Rainbow Rare | 2% |
| Hit slot | Gold Secret | 1% |
Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.
FAQ
Does Champion's Path have booster boxes?
No. It's a special set that was only distributed through products like Elite Trainer Boxes, Premium Collections and pin collections — never 36-pack booster boxes.
What is the chase card in Champion's Path?
The rainbow Charizard VMAX secret rare, one of the defining chase cards of the 2020 boom. The rest of the set's value trails it by a huge distance.
How rare is the Champion's Path Charizard?
The rainbow tier lands around 1 in 50 packs by community estimates, and the Charizard is only one card within it. Official pull rates have never been published.
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