Burst of Destiny Pull Rates & Pack EV — Worth Ripping?

Right now: the best rip in Burst of Destiny is the Booster Pack [1st Ed] at $2.10 against $1.87 of expected pulls — a −24% margin after ~15% selling fees, and a 4% chance it actually pays for itself. Figures refresh every two hours.

Burst of Destiny is a Yu-Gi-Oh! set released 2021/10/22. This page tracks whether its sealed products are worth opening: live TCGPlayer market prices for every product, the expected value of the cards inside, and the pull-rate model behind the math.

Standard core booster: 9 cards per pack, 24 packs per box, about one foil (Super Rare or better) per pack with Ultras roughly 1 in 6, Secrets 1 in 12 and the top tier about one per case. Sealed products listed are the 1st Edition print run where TCGPlayer separates them. Pull rates are community estimates.

Sealed products: price vs. expected value

ProductMargin after ~15% feesMarket priceEV of pullsOdds it pays for itself
Booster Pack [1st Ed] −24% $2.10 $1.87 4%
Booster Box [1st Ed] (24 packs) −24% $50.57 $44.92 18%

Pull-rate model

Burst of Destiny packs hold 9 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.

SlotOutcomeEst. chance
Rare slotRare100%
Foil hit slotSuper Rare65%
Foil hit slotUltra Rare27%
Foil hit slotSecret Rare7%
Foil hit slotStarlight / QC Secret1%

Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.

FAQ

What are the odds a Booster Pack [1st Ed] of Burst of Destiny pays for itself?

About 4% after ~15% selling fees (7% before fees) as of 2026-09-11, computed from the exact outcome distribution of the Burst of Destiny pack model rather than a simulation. The median Booster Pack [1st Ed] returns $0.82 of cards after fees against its $2.10 price, and the chance of at least doubling your money is 2%. These odds refresh with every two-hourly price update.

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