Monarch Pull Rates & Pack EV — Worth Ripping?

Right now: the best rip in Monarch is the Booster Box (24 packs) [Unlimited] at $36.65 against $214.47 of expected pulls — a +397% margin after ~15% selling fees, and a 100% chance it actually pays for itself. Figures refresh every two hours.

Monarch is a Flesh and Blood set released 2021-04-30. This page tracks whether its sealed products are worth opening: live TCGPlayer market prices for every product, the expected value of the cards inside, and the pull-rate model behind the math.

Booster pack with a rare slot, a Majestic-or-better slot (Legendary, Marvel and Fabled are the roughly 1-in-30-and-rarer chases) and a cold-foil slot; 24 packs per box. The Unlimited print run is modeled; 1st Edition sealed trades on a collector premium.Pull rates are community estimates.

Sealed products: price vs. expected value

ProductMargin after ~15% feesMarket priceEV of pullsOdds it pays for itself
Booster Pack [Unlimited] +83% $4.14 $8.94 49%
Booster Box (24 packs) [Unlimited] +397% $36.65 $214.47 100%

Pull-rate model

Monarch packs hold 15 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.

SlotOutcomeEst. chance
Rare slotRare100%
Majestic slotMajestic93%
Majestic slotMarvel4%
Majestic slotLegendary2.5%
Majestic slotFabled0.5%
Cold-foil slotCold-Foil Common80%
Cold-foil slotCold-Foil Rare18%
Cold-foil slotCold-Foil Majestic2%

Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.

FAQ

What are the odds a Booster Box (24 packs) [Unlimited] of Monarch pays for itself?

About 100% after ~15% selling fees (100% before fees) as of 2026-09-11, computed from the exact outcome distribution of the Monarch pack model rather than a simulation. The median Booster Box (24 packs) [Unlimited] returns $166.70 of cards after fees against its $36.65 price, and the chance of at least doubling your money is 100%. These odds refresh with every two-hourly price update.

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