Right now: the best rip in Winterspell is the Booster Box at $250.32 against $167.23 of expected pulls — a −43% margin after ~15% selling fees, and a 18% chance it actually pays for itself. Figures refresh every two hours.
Winterspell released February 13, 2026, a winter-themed set that's still early in its price curve — sealed hasn't fully settled, and singles are still finding their level as supply keeps arriving. Its per-pack EV currently ranks near the top of Lorcana's regular sets, driven as always by the Enchanted tier.
Every 12-card pack carries a guaranteed rare-or-better and one foil. By community estimates the guaranteed slot hits Enchanted about 2% of the time and Legendary about 8% — call it two Legendaries per 24-pack box and an Enchanted every other box on average. The foil slot rarely matters: 87% commons and uncommons, with a foil Legendary about once in a hundred packs.
The catch is the ticket price. Newer Lorcana sets have been launching at higher pack prices for identical odds, and Winterspell is no exception, so a strong EV still trails what sealed costs. Watch the live table below — post-launch sets usually see sealed soften over their first year, and the margin here is worth rechecking before you commit to a box.
Sealed products: price vs. expected value
| Product | Margin after ~15% fees | Market price | EV of pulls | Odds it pays for itself |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | −44% | $10.64 | $6.97 | 4% |
| Booster Box | −43% | $250.32 | $167.23 | 18% |
| Illumineer's Trove | −52% | $98.37 | $55.74 | 13% |
Pull-rate model
Winterspell packs hold 12 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.
| Slot | Outcome | Est. chance |
|---|---|---|
| Rare-or-better slot | Rare | 60% |
| Rare-or-better slot | Super Rare | 30% |
| Rare-or-better slot | Legendary | 8% |
| Rare-or-better slot | Enchanted | 2% |
| Foil slot | Common (foil) | 65% |
| Foil slot | Uncommon (foil) | 22% |
| Foil slot | Rare (foil) | 8% |
| Foil slot | Super Rare (foil) | 4% |
| Foil slot | Legendary (foil) | 1% |
Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.
FAQ
When did Winterspell release?
February 13, 2026, making it one of Lorcana's newest main-set releases.
What are the Winterspell Enchanted odds?
Community estimates put Enchanteds at about 2% per pack — one every 50 packs on average. Ravensburger publishes no official rates.
What sealed products does Winterspell have?
Booster packs, 24-pack booster boxes, and the eight-pack Illumineer's Trove.
What are the odds a Booster Box of Winterspell pays for itself?
About 18% after ~15% selling fees (24% before fees) as of 2026-10-27, computed from the exact outcome distribution of the Winterspell pack model rather than a simulation. The median Booster Box returns $61.56 of cards after fees against its $250.32 price, and the chance of at least doubling your money is 5%. These odds refresh with every two-hourly price update.
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