Right now: the best rip in Modern Horizons 2 is the Draft Booster Pack at $8.54 against $6.55 of expected pulls — a −35% margin after ~15% selling fees, and a 13% chance it actually pays for itself. Figures refresh every two hours.
Modern Horizons 2 is a Magic: The Gathering set released 2021-06-19. This page tracks whether its sealed products are worth opening: live TCGPlayer market prices for every product, the expected value of the cards inside, and the pull-rate model behind the math.
Draft Booster (15 cards: 1 rare or mythic, 3 uncommons, 10 commons, 1 land; a foil replaces a common in about 1 pack in 3, and mythics take about 1 rare slot in 7.4). Set Boosters and Collector Boosters have different contents and aren't modeled. Draft Boosters were retired with Play Boosters in 2024, so supply is fixed. Modern Horizons 2 draft boosters carry a new-to-Modern slot; the rare/mythic and foil odds are the standard collation.Pull rates follow the published Draft Booster collation.
Sealed products: price vs. expected value
| Product | Margin after ~15% fees | Market price | EV of pulls | Odds it pays for itself |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft Booster Pack | −35% | $8.54 | $6.55 | 13% |
| Draft Booster Box (36 packs) | −38% | $322.19 | $235.73 | 3% |
| Bundle (10 Draft Boosters) | −58% | $134.06 | $65.48 | 2% |
Pull-rate model
Modern Horizons 2 packs hold 15 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.
| Slot | Outcome | Est. chance |
|---|---|---|
| Rare/Mythic slot | Rare | 86.5% |
| Rare/Mythic slot | Mythic | 13.5% |
| Foil slot (≈1 in 3 packs) | No foil (bulk) | 67% |
| Foil slot (≈1 in 3 packs) | Common Foil | 21% |
| Foil slot (≈1 in 3 packs) | Uncommon Foil | 8.5% |
| Foil slot (≈1 in 3 packs) | Rare Foil | 3% |
| Foil slot (≈1 in 3 packs) | Mythic Foil | 0.5% |
Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.
FAQ
What are the odds a Draft Booster Pack of Modern Horizons 2 pays for itself?
About 13% after ~15% selling fees (16% before fees) as of 2026-09-11, computed from the exact outcome distribution of the Modern Horizons 2 pack model rather than a simulation. The median Draft Booster Pack returns $1.58 of cards after fees against its $8.54 price, and the chance of at least doubling your money is 10%. These odds refresh with every two-hourly price update.
🎴 Rip a Modern Horizons 2 pack yourself — simulated, real odds, live prices →