Right now: the best rip in Modern Horizons 2 is the Draft Booster Pack at $8.86 against $6.04 of expected pulls — a −42% margin after ~15% selling fees, and a 13% chance it actually pays for itself. Figures refresh every two hours.
Modern Horizons 2 (June 19, 2021) is a straight-to-Modern set rather than a Standard one, sold in 15-card Draft Boosters: one rare or mythic, three uncommons, ten commons and a land, with a foil replacing a common about one pack in three, plus a new-to-Modern slot. Draft Boosters were retired in 2024, so supply is fixed and sealed pricing sits well above a Standard set's.
The card list is deep. Esper Sentinel, a rare, tops the price list in three frames; Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer is the marquee mythic; and the enemy fetch lands, Scalding Tarn and Misty Rainforest, hold value as reprints. With over 220 rare listings, mythics still take about one rare slot in 7.4, and per-pack EV runs well above a typical Standard set's.
Loose packs, the 36-pack Draft Booster Box and the 10-pack Bundle are tracked; the Bundle has historically been the weakest of the three. Set and Collector Boosters have different contents and aren't modeled. The new-to-Modern slot isn't modeled separately; rare-or-mythic and foil odds are the standard collation, so the live EV is if anything conservative. Current numbers are below.
Sealed products: price vs. expected value
| Product | Margin after ~15% fees | Market price | EV of pulls | Odds it pays for itself |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft Booster Pack | −42% | $8.86 | $6.04 | 13% |
| Draft Booster Box (36 packs) | −48% | $354.98 | $217.42 | 0% |
| Bundle (10 Draft Boosters) | −62% | $134.94 | $60.40 | 1% |
Pull-rate model
Modern Horizons 2 packs hold 15 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.
| Slot | Outcome | Est. chance |
|---|---|---|
| Rare/Mythic slot | Rare | 86.5% |
| Rare/Mythic slot | Mythic | 13.5% |
| Foil slot (≈1 in 3 packs) | No foil (bulk) | 67% |
| Foil slot (≈1 in 3 packs) | Common Foil | 21% |
| Foil slot (≈1 in 3 packs) | Uncommon Foil | 8.5% |
| Foil slot (≈1 in 3 packs) | Rare Foil | 3% |
| Foil slot (≈1 in 3 packs) | Mythic Foil | 0.5% |
Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.
FAQ
How many packs are in a Modern Horizons 2 booster box?
A Draft Booster Box holds 36 packs of 15 cards, and the Bundle holds 10 Draft Boosters. Set Boosters and Collector Boosters were sold in separate boxes with different contents and aren't modeled here.
What are the chase cards in Modern Horizons 2?
Esper Sentinel and Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer lead, each in several frames, with the enemy fetch lands Scalding Tarn and Misty Rainforest close behind. The depth of the rare pool, rather than one jackpot, is what keeps the pack EV high.
Does the model include the Modern Horizons 2 new-to-Modern slot?
Not as a separate slot. The model uses the standard Draft Booster rare-or-mythic and foil odds; the new-to-Modern slot exists in every pack but isn't broken out, so the live EV may understate what those reprints add.
What are the odds a Draft Booster Pack of Modern Horizons 2 pays for itself?
About 13% after ~15% selling fees (15% before fees) as of 2026-10-27, computed from the exact outcome distribution of the Modern Horizons 2 pack model rather than a simulation. The median Draft Booster Pack returns $1.47 of cards after fees against its $8.86 price, and the chance of at least doubling your money is 10%. These odds refresh with every two-hourly price update.
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