Right now: the best rip in Reality Fracture is the Play Booster Box (36 packs) at $122.65 against $112.48 of expected pulls — a −22% margin after ~15% selling fees, and a 13% chance it actually pays for itself. Figures refresh every two hours.
Reality Fracture is a Standard set due October 2, 2026, sold in 14-card Play Boosters: a rare-or-mythic slot, a guaranteed foil and wildcard slots that can add more. As of writing it's a presale, so sealed prices are still settling and the card list is only partially spoiled and priced, which makes everything on this page provisional in a way a released set's page isn't.
The model is the standard Play Booster collation: a mythic in the rare slot roughly one pack in 6.7, and a foil slot that pays a rare or better in about 13% of packs. Early pricing is led by Liliana the Faultless and The Theorist, Jace Beleren, with Bloodline Recollector, Liliana the Repentant, Stingcaster Mage, Ajani Resolute, Ajani Unrelenting and Garruk, Veiled Butcher behind them.
Distrust the live EV for now. Only a handful of singles are priced, all rares and mythics, so the model extrapolates a pack worth many times its cost; it will fall hard as commons and uncommons get listed. Loose packs, the 36-pack Play Booster Box, the 9-pack Bundle and Collector Boosters are tracked, the last modeled with Play Booster contents only. Numbers below refresh every two hours.
Sealed products: price vs. expected value
| Product | Margin after ~15% fees | Market price | EV of pulls | Odds it pays for itself |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Play Booster Pack | −53% | $5.67 | $3.12 | 10% |
| Play Booster Box (36 packs) | −22% | $122.65 | $112.48 | 13% |
| Collector Booster Pack | −93% | $39.11 | $3.12 | 0% |
| Bundle (9 Play Boosters) | −49% | $47.13 | $28.12 | 6% |
Pull-rate model
Reality Fracture packs hold 14 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.
| Slot | Outcome | Est. chance |
|---|---|---|
| Rare/Mythic slot | Rare | 85% |
| Rare/Mythic slot | Mythic | 15% |
| Foil slot | Common Foil | 62% |
| Foil slot | Uncommon Foil | 25% |
| Foil slot | Rare Foil | 10% |
| Foil slot | Mythic Foil | 3% |
Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.
FAQ
How many packs are in a Reality Fracture booster box?
A Play Booster Box holds 36 packs of 14 cards, and the Bundle holds 9 Play Boosters. Collector Boosters are sold separately and, on this page, are modeled with Play Booster contents for price tracking only.
Why does Reality Fracture show such a high pack EV before release?
Because only a few singles have presale prices, and they're all rares and mythics. The model averages the priced pool across the rare slot, so a tiny, expensive card list produces an inflated EV. Expect it to drop sharply once the full set is listed.
What are the chase cards in Reality Fracture so far?
Early presale pricing puts Liliana the Faultless and The Theorist, Jace Beleren at the top, with Bloodline Recollector, Liliana the Repentant, Stingcaster Mage, Ajani Resolute, Ajani Unrelenting and Garruk, Veiled Butcher behind them. The ordering will shift as more cards are priced.
What are the odds a Play Booster Box (36 packs) of Reality Fracture pays for itself?
About 13% after ~15% selling fees (31% before fees) as of 2026-10-27, computed from the exact outcome distribution of the Reality Fracture pack model rather than a simulation. The median Play Booster Box (36 packs) returns $91.71 of cards after fees against its $122.65 price, and the chance of at least doubling your money is under 0.5%. These odds refresh with every two-hourly price update.
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