Right now: the best rip in The Hobbit is the Play Booster Box (36 packs) at $151.80 against $116.42 of expected pulls — a −35% margin after ~15% selling fees, and a 5% chance it actually pays for itself. Figures refresh every two hours.
The Hobbit is a Magic: The Gathering set released 2026-08-14. This page tracks whether its sealed products are worth opening: live TCGPlayer market prices for every product, the expected value of the cards inside, and the pull-rate model behind the math.
Play Booster (14 cards): a rare-or-mythic slot plus a foil, with wildcard slots that can add more. Collector Boosters are listed for price tracking but modeled with the Play Booster pack — their value sits in serialized and extended-art variants the model doesn't capture. Pull rates follow the published Play Booster collation.
Sealed products: price vs. expected value
| Product | Margin after ~15% fees | Market price | EV of pulls | Odds it pays for itself |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Play Booster Pack | −56% | $6.20 | $3.23 | 9% |
| Play Booster Box (36 packs) | −35% | $151.80 | $116.42 | 5% |
| Collector Booster Pack | −96% | $72.22 | $3.23 | 0% |
| Bundle (9 Play Boosters) | −63% | $66.71 | $29.11 | 2% |
Pull-rate model
The Hobbit packs hold 14 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.
| Slot | Outcome | Est. chance |
|---|---|---|
| Rare/Mythic slot | Rare | 85% |
| Rare/Mythic slot | Mythic | 15% |
| Foil slot | Common Foil | 62% |
| Foil slot | Uncommon Foil | 25% |
| Foil slot | Rare Foil | 10% |
| Foil slot | Mythic Foil | 3% |
Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.
FAQ
What are the odds a Play Booster Box (36 packs) of The Hobbit pays for itself?
About 5% after ~15% selling fees (15% before fees) as of 2026-09-11, computed from the exact outcome distribution of the The Hobbit pack model rather than a simulation. The median Play Booster Box (36 packs) returns $95.26 of cards after fees against its $151.80 price, and the chance of at least doubling your money is under 0.5%. These odds refresh with every two-hourly price update.
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