Right now: the best rip in The Hobbit is the Play Booster Box (36 packs) at $133.40 against $95.92 of expected pulls — a −39% margin after ~15% selling fees, and a 3% chance it actually pays for itself. Figures refresh every two hours.
The Hobbit, a Universes Beyond Magic set released August 14, 2026, ships in 14-card Play Boosters: a rare-or-mythic slot, a guaranteed foil, and wildcard slots that can add more of either. It is only weeks old, so sealed is still finding its level; boxes have priced noticeably kinder per pack than loose packs, and the Collector Booster is a different animal entirely.
The model follows the published Play Booster collation. The rare slot goes mythic about 15%, roughly one pack in seven, and the foil slot pays a rare foil about 1 in 10 packs and a mythic foil about 1 in 33. A Borderless Smaug the Magnificent tops the price list at an outlier figure, followed by Surge Foil versions of Gleaming Splendor, The Arkenstone and Gandalf, Goblins' Bane.
Four products are tracked: loose Play Boosters, the 36-pack Play Booster Box, the 9-pack Bundle and the Collector Booster. The Collector Booster is listed for price tracking only; its value sits in serialized and extended-art variants the Play Booster model doesn't capture, so its margin reads as brutal by construction. Start with the box line, then check the live table below for the current gap.
Sealed products: price vs. expected value
| Product | Margin after ~15% fees | Market price | EV of pulls | Odds it pays for itself |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Play Booster Pack | −56% | $5.18 | $2.66 | 8% |
| Play Booster Box (36 packs) | −39% | $133.40 | $95.92 | 3% |
| Collector Booster Pack | −97% | $64.77 | $2.66 | 0% |
| Bundle (9 Play Boosters) | −57% | $47.44 | $23.98 | 3% |
Pull-rate model
The Hobbit packs hold 14 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.
| Slot | Outcome | Est. chance |
|---|---|---|
| Rare/Mythic slot | Rare | 85% |
| Rare/Mythic slot | Mythic | 15% |
| Foil slot | Common Foil | 62% |
| Foil slot | Uncommon Foil | 25% |
| Foil slot | Rare Foil | 10% |
| Foil slot | Mythic Foil | 3% |
Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.
FAQ
How many packs are in a The Hobbit Play Booster Box?
36 Play Boosters of 14 cards each. The Bundle holds 9 Play Boosters. Collector Boosters are sold as separate single packs with different contents, and this page models them with the Play Booster pack rather than their own collation.
What are the chase cards in The Hobbit?
Smaug the Magnificent in its Borderless printing sits far above everything else, followed by Surge Foil treatments of Gleaming Splendor, The Arkenstone, Gandalf, Goblins' Bane, The Queen of Dale, Thorin, Mountain-king and Bard, King of Dale. Several are premium treatments, so weight the plain printings when reading the table.
Why does The Hobbit Collector Booster look so bad on this page?
Because it is modeled with the ordinary Play Booster pack. Its real value lies in serialized and extended-art variants that the model doesn't price, so the Collector Booster line is a price-tracking placeholder, not a verdict on the product.
What are the odds a Play Booster Box (36 packs) of The Hobbit pays for itself?
About 3% after ~15% selling fees (10% before fees) as of 2026-10-27, computed from the exact outcome distribution of the The Hobbit pack model rather than a simulation. The median Play Booster Box (36 packs) returns $78.33 of cards after fees against its $133.40 price, and the chance of at least doubling your money is under 0.5%. These odds refresh with every two-hourly price update.
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