Paldea Evolved Pack EV — Rip It or Buy Singles?

Right now: the best rip in Paldea Evolved is the Booster Box (36 packs) at $494.24 against $252.58 of expected pulls — a −57% margin after ~15% selling fees. Figures refresh every two hours.

Paldea Evolved, out June 9, 2023, is the set where the Iono Special Illustration Rare became the era's first true trainer-card chase — it has carried a huge share of the set's total value ever since. That concentration is the EV story: one card behind roughly 1-in-33 SIR odds, propping up packs that otherwise return bulk.

The structure is standard Scarlet & Violet: a guaranteed reverse holo, a rare slot that's a Double Rare about 30% of the time and an Ultra Rare 1 in 10, and a hit slot paying an Illustration Rare roughly 1 in 9 packs and a gold Hyper Rare near 1 in 83. Community estimates, not official rates.

Every format exists — packs, ETB, bundle, Build & Battle, 36-pack booster box — and all have recently modeled well below cost. If Iono is the goal, buying the single has been a fraction of the expected cost of pulling one. The live numbers below will tell you if that's changed.

Sealed products: price vs. expected value

ProductMargin after ~15% feesMarket priceEV of pulls
Booster Pack −62% $15.84 $7.02
Elite Trainer Box −77% $235.91 $63.14
Booster Bundle −71% $123.56 $42.10
Booster Box (36 packs) −57% $494.24 $252.58
Build & Battle Box −61% $61.30 $28.06

Pull-rate model

Paldea Evolved packs hold 10 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.

SlotOutcomeEst. chance
Reverse HoloReverse Holo100%
Holo Rare slotRare55%
Holo Rare slotDouble Rare30%
Holo Rare slotUltra Rare10%
Holo Rare slotACE SPEC Rare5%
Hit slotHolo Rare (baseline)84.8%
Hit slotIllustration Rare11%
Hit slotSpecial Illustration Rare3%
Hit slotHyper Rare (Gold)1.2%

Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.

FAQ

What is the most valuable chase in Paldea Evolved?

The Iono Special Illustration Rare, the Scarlet & Violet era's first major trainer-card chase. SIRs land about 1 in 33 packs by community estimates.

How many packs come in each Paldea Evolved product?

Booster box: 36. Elite Trainer Box: 9. Booster Bundle: 6. Build & Battle Box: 4. Packs hold 10 cards each.

Are Paldea Evolved pull rates official?

No — they're community estimates built from opening data. Official pull rates have never been published.

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