Right now: the best rip in Scarlet & Violet is the Booster Box (36 packs) at $292.45 against $159.02 of expected pulls — a −54% margin after ~15% selling fees, and a 0% chance it actually pays for itself. Figures refresh every two hours.
The Scarlet & Violet base set opened the era on March 31, 2023 — new ex mechanics, a new rarity ladder, and a print run built for mass supply. Base sets get printed to meet demand, and printed-to-demand sets rarely model well: this one's per-pack EV has sat among the lowest in modern Pokémon.
The chase board is led by the Miriam Special Illustration Rare, with Koraidon ex and Miraidon ex fronting the marquee slots. Odds are the SV standard: a guaranteed reverse holo, a Double Rare in about 30% of rare slots, an Ultra Rare 1 in 10, an Illustration Rare roughly 1 in 9 packs, a Special Illustration Rare about 1 in 33 and a gold Hyper Rare near 1 in 83 — all community estimates.
Every product exists, from loose packs to the 36-pack booster box, and all of it has recently modeled at a steep loss. This is a singles set. The live table below shows the current gap, updated every couple of hours.
Sealed products: price vs. expected value
| Product | Margin after ~15% fees | Market price | EV of pulls | Odds it pays for itself |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | −58% | $8.93 | $4.42 | 10% |
| Elite Trainer Box | −75% | $133.67 | $39.75 | 0% |
| Booster Bundle | −79% | $105.27 | $26.50 | 0% |
| Booster Box (36 packs) | −54% | $292.45 | $159.02 | 0% |
| Build & Battle Box | −63% | $40.75 | $17.67 | 8% |
Pull-rate model
Scarlet & Violet packs hold 10 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.
| Slot | Outcome | Est. chance |
|---|---|---|
| Reverse Holo | Reverse Holo | 100% |
| Holo Rare slot | Rare | 55% |
| Holo Rare slot | Double Rare | 30% |
| Holo Rare slot | Ultra Rare | 10% |
| Holo Rare slot | ACE SPEC Rare | 5% |
| Hit slot | Holo Rare (baseline) | 84.8% |
| Hit slot | Illustration Rare | 11% |
| Hit slot | Special Illustration Rare | 3% |
| Hit slot | Hyper Rare (Gold) | 1.2% |
Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.
FAQ
What are the chase cards in the Scarlet & Violet base set?
The Miriam Special Illustration Rare leads the board, alongside Koraidon ex, Miraidon ex and the gold Hyper Rares. SIRs land about 1 in 33 packs by community estimates.
How many cards are in a Scarlet & Violet booster pack?
10 cards, including a guaranteed reverse holo, a rare slot and a hit slot. A booster box holds 36 packs; the ETB holds 9.
Are Scarlet & Violet base set pull rates official?
No. Every rate shown is a community estimate — The Pokémon Company has never published official pull rates.
What are the odds a Booster Box (36 packs) of Scarlet & Violet pays for itself?
About 0% after ~15% selling fees (2% before fees) as of 2026-09-11, computed from the exact outcome distribution of the Scarlet & Violet pack model rather than a simulation. The median Booster Box (36 packs) returns $129.10 of cards after fees against its $292.45 price, and the chance of at least doubling your money is under 0.5%. These odds refresh with every two-hourly price update.
🎴 Rip a Scarlet & Violet pack yourself — simulated, real odds, live prices →