Right now: the best rip in Obsidian Flames is the Booster Box (36 packs) at $381.91 against $163.91 of expected pulls — a −64% margin after ~15% selling fees. Figures refresh every two hours.
Obsidian Flames, released August 11, 2023, is the Charizard set — its Tera Charizard ex Special Illustration Rare remains one of the defining chases of the Scarlet & Violet era. It's also a textbook case of chase-card gravity: sealed prices track the Charizard, pack EV tracks the whole card list, and the two have never been close.
Standard SV odds apply: ten cards, a guaranteed reverse holo, a Double Rare in about 30% of rare slots, an Ultra Rare 1 in 10. The hit slot pays an Illustration Rare roughly 1 in 9 packs, a Special Illustration Rare about 1 in 33 and a gold Hyper Rare near 1 in 83, per community estimates.
All five formats exist, from loose packs to 36-pack booster boxes, and at recent prices this has been one of the deeper-underwater sets of the era. The live table below shows the current fee-adjusted margin for each product; the singles page for the Charizard is the honest alternative.
Sealed products: price vs. expected value
| Product | Margin after ~15% fees | Market price | EV of pulls |
|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | −70% | $12.78 | $4.55 |
| Elite Trainer Box | −89% | $315.92 | $40.98 |
| Booster Bundle | −80% | $116.60 | $27.32 |
| Booster Box (36 packs) | −64% | $381.91 | $163.91 |
| Build & Battle Box | −73% | $57.03 | $18.21 |
Pull-rate model
Obsidian Flames packs hold 10 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.
| Slot | Outcome | Est. chance |
|---|---|---|
| Reverse Holo | Reverse Holo | 100% |
| Holo Rare slot | Rare | 55% |
| Holo Rare slot | Double Rare | 30% |
| Holo Rare slot | Ultra Rare | 10% |
| Holo Rare slot | ACE SPEC Rare | 5% |
| Hit slot | Holo Rare (baseline) | 84.8% |
| Hit slot | Illustration Rare | 11% |
| Hit slot | Special Illustration Rare | 3% |
| Hit slot | Hyper Rare (Gold) | 1.2% |
Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.
FAQ
What is the main chase card in Obsidian Flames?
The Tera Charizard ex Special Illustration Rare. The SIR tier lands about 1 in 33 packs by community estimates.
How many packs are in an Obsidian Flames booster box?
36 packs of 10 cards. The set also comes as a 9-pack ETB, 6-pack Booster Bundle and 4-pack Build & Battle Box.
Are Obsidian Flames pull rates official?
No. The rates on this page are community estimates; The Pokémon Company doesn't publish official odds.
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