Pokémon 151 Pull Rates & Pack EV — Worth Ripping?

Right now: the best rip in 151 is the Booster Pack at $28.26 against $13.54 of expected pulls — a −59% margin after ~15% selling fees, and a 10% chance it actually pays for itself. Figures refresh every two hours.

151 is the Kanto nostalgia set — every original Pokémon, released September 22, 2023 — and it carries the highest per-pack EV of any standard-odds Scarlet & Violet set, led by the Charizard ex Special Illustration Rare. It has also carried a sealed premium so large that the EV has never caught up: nostalgia prices the boxes, math prices the packs, and nostalgia has been winning.

There's no booster box. 151 sells through loose packs, 9-pack Elite Trainer Boxes, 6-pack Booster Bundles, Binder and Premium Collections, and the 16-pack Ultra-Premium Collection. Odds follow the standard SV template: an Illustration Rare roughly 1 in 9 packs, a Special Illustration Rare about 1 in 33, a gold Hyper Rare near 1 in 83 — community estimates.

The gap between what sealed costs and what packs return has recently been among the widest in modern Pokémon. If you're ripping 151, you're paying for the experience — which is a legitimate thing to pay for, as long as you know that's the product. Live margins below.

Sealed products: price vs. expected value

ProductMargin after ~15% feesMarket priceEV of pullsOdds it pays for itself
Booster Pack −59% $28.26 $13.54 10%
Elite Trainer Box −81% $554.55 $121.83 0%
Booster Bundle −61% $177.83 $81.22 5%
Ultra-Premium Collection −80% $924.18 $216.58 0%
Premium Collection −79% $326.81 $81.22 2%
Binder Collection −85% $232.36 $40.61 1%

Pull-rate model

151 packs hold 10 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.

SlotOutcomeEst. chance
Reverse HoloReverse Holo100%
Holo Rare slotRare55%
Holo Rare slotDouble Rare30%
Holo Rare slotUltra Rare10%
Holo Rare slotACE SPEC Rare5%
Hit slotHolo Rare (baseline)84.8%
Hit slotIllustration Rare11%
Hit slotSpecial Illustration Rare3%
Hit slotHyper Rare (Gold)1.2%

Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.

FAQ

Does Pokémon 151 have a booster box?

No. 151 sells through loose packs, 9-pack Elite Trainer Boxes, 6-pack Booster Bundles, 3-pack Binder Collections, 6-pack Premium Collections and the 16-pack Ultra-Premium Collection.

What is the top chase in 151?

The Charizard ex Special Illustration Rare. SIRs as a tier land about 1 in 33 packs by community estimates.

Are the 151 pull rates official?

No — they're community estimates applied through the standard Scarlet & Violet slot model. No official pull rates exist.

What are the odds a Booster Pack of 151 pays for itself?

About 10% after ~15% selling fees (11% before fees) as of 2026-09-11, computed from the exact outcome distribution of the 151 pack model rather than a simulation. The median Booster Pack returns $2.94 of cards after fees against its $28.26 price, and the chance of at least doubling your money is 6%. These odds refresh with every two-hourly price update.

🎴 Rip a 151 pack yourself — simulated, real odds, live prices →