Right now: the best rip in Paldean Fates is the Booster Pack at $23.67 against $45.43 of expected pulls — a +63% margin after ~15% selling fees. Figures refresh every two hours.
Paldean Fates, the January 26, 2024 shiny mini set, guarantees a shiny-tier card in every pack's hit slot — and the Shiny Charizard ex at the top of its board is why loose packs have recently modeled profitable while some of the premium boxes haven't. Same cards, very different markups.
The odds follow the shiny-guaranteed template: within the hit slot, a Special Illustration Rare lands about 1 in 6 packs and a gold Hyper Rare about 1 in 67, with a Shiny Rare as the floor. The rare slot upgrades too — a Shiny Rare about 35% of the time, a Shiny Ultra 15%. Community estimates, but far richer than a standard set either way.
The catch is packaging. Loose packs and 6-pack Booster Bundles have carried strong margins at recent prices, while the 9-pack Elite Trainer Box and especially the Premium Collection have charged more per pack than the shiny odds justify. The live fee-adjusted table below sorts them for you.
Sealed products: price vs. expected value
| Product | Margin after ~15% fees | Market price | EV of pulls |
|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | +63% | $23.67 | $45.43 |
| Elite Trainer Box | −27% | $477.97 | $408.89 |
| Booster Bundle | +51% | $153.88 | $272.59 |
| Premium Collection | −67% | $698.49 | $272.59 |
Pull-rate model
Paldean Fates packs hold 10 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.
| Slot | Outcome | Est. chance |
|---|---|---|
| Reverse Holo | Reverse Holo | 100% |
| Holo Rare slot | Rare | 50% |
| Holo Rare slot | Shiny Rare | 35% |
| Holo Rare slot | Shiny Ultra | 15% |
| Hit slot (Shiny) | Shiny Rare (baseline) | 82.5% |
| Hit slot (Shiny) | Special Illustration Rare | 16% |
| Hit slot (Shiny) | Hyper Rare (Gold) | 1.5% |
Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.
FAQ
Does every Paldean Fates pack include a shiny?
In our model the hit slot always pays a shiny-tier card, with a Special Illustration Rare about 1 in 6 packs and a gold Hyper Rare near 1 in 67, per community estimates.
What products does Paldean Fates come in?
Loose packs, a 9-pack Elite Trainer Box, a 6-pack Booster Bundle and a 6-pack Premium Collection. There is no standard booster box.
Are Paldean Fates pull rates official?
No — they're community estimates. The guaranteed shiny hit slot is well documented, but the exact tier odds are approximations.
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