Right now: the best rip in Twilight Masquerade is the Booster Pack at $8.56 against $6.11 of expected pulls — a −39% margin after ~15% selling fees. Figures refresh every two hours.
Twilight Masquerade, released May 24, 2024, brought the Teal Mask storyline to the TCG — Ogerpon everywhere, plus the Greninja ex Special Illustration Rare that became the set's defining chase. One strong SIR isn't enough to float a set, though, and this one has consistently modeled below sealed cost.
The math is standard Scarlet & Violet: ten cards, a guaranteed reverse holo, a Double Rare in roughly 3 of 10 rare slots, an Ultra Rare 1 in 10, an ACE SPEC 1 in 20. The hit slot lands an Illustration Rare about 1 in 9 packs, a Special Illustration Rare near 1 in 33 and a gold Hyper Rare around 1 in 83 — community estimates from opening data, not official figures.
All five products exist, from loose packs to the 36-pack booster box, and the box has typically been the cheapest per-pack route. Whether cheapest is cheap enough is what the live table below answers — historically the answer has been no.
Sealed products: price vs. expected value
| Product | Margin after ~15% fees | Market price | EV of pulls |
|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | −39% | $8.56 | $6.11 |
| Elite Trainer Box | −56% | $105.22 | $55.00 |
| Booster Bundle | −60% | $78.22 | $36.66 |
| Booster Box (36 packs) | −48% | $362.05 | $219.98 |
| Build & Battle Box | −65% | $59.50 | $24.44 |
Pull-rate model
Twilight Masquerade packs hold 10 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.
| Slot | Outcome | Est. chance |
|---|---|---|
| Reverse Holo | Reverse Holo | 100% |
| Holo Rare slot | Rare | 55% |
| Holo Rare slot | Double Rare | 30% |
| Holo Rare slot | Ultra Rare | 10% |
| Holo Rare slot | ACE SPEC Rare | 5% |
| Hit slot | Holo Rare (baseline) | 84.8% |
| Hit slot | Illustration Rare | 11% |
| Hit slot | Special Illustration Rare | 3% |
| Hit slot | Hyper Rare (Gold) | 1.2% |
Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.
FAQ
What is the biggest chase card in Twilight Masquerade?
The Greninja ex Special Illustration Rare, with Teal Mask Ogerpon ex close behind. The SIR tier lands about 1 in 33 packs by community estimates.
How many packs are in a Twilight Masquerade booster box?
36 packs of 10 cards. The set also comes as a 9-pack ETB, 6-pack Booster Bundle and 4-pack Build & Battle Box.
Are the Twilight Masquerade pull rates official?
No. They're community estimates aggregated from pack-opening data; official rates don't exist.
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