Right now: the best rip in Stellar Crown is the Booster Box (36 packs) at $309.02 against $190.47 of expected pulls — a −48% margin after ~15% selling fees, and a 5% chance it actually pays for itself. Figures refresh every two hours.
Stellar Crown, released September 13, 2024, is the Terapagos set — and one of the weaker EV propositions in Scarlet & Violet. The chase board is shallow: without a marquee Special Illustration Rare commanding real money, the 1-in-33 SIR slot doesn't pay enough to carry the other nine cards in the pack.
The structure is standard: a guaranteed reverse holo, a rare slot that's a Double Rare about 30% of the time, an Ultra Rare 1 in 10 and an ACE SPEC 1 in 20, plus a hit slot paying an Illustration Rare roughly 1 in 9 packs and a gold Hyper Rare near 1 in 83. All community estimates.
The full product lineup exists — packs, ETB, bundle, Build & Battle, 36-pack booster box — and at recent prices all of it has modeled at a meaningful loss. Sets like this are what the singles market is for. The live table below shows exactly how far each product sits from break-even.
Sealed products: price vs. expected value
| Product | Margin after ~15% fees | Market price | EV of pulls | Odds it pays for itself |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | −57% | $10.56 | $5.29 | 8% |
| Elite Trainer Box | −74% | $154.95 | $47.62 | 2% |
| Booster Bundle | −63% | $72.23 | $31.75 | 11% |
| Booster Box (36 packs) | −48% | $309.02 | $190.47 | 5% |
| Build & Battle Box | −63% | $49.26 | $21.16 | 9% |
Pull-rate model
Stellar Crown packs hold 10 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.
| Slot | Outcome | Est. chance |
|---|---|---|
| Reverse Holo | Reverse Holo | 100% |
| Holo Rare slot | Rare | 55% |
| Holo Rare slot | Double Rare | 30% |
| Holo Rare slot | Ultra Rare | 10% |
| Holo Rare slot | ACE SPEC Rare | 5% |
| Hit slot | Holo Rare (baseline) | 84.8% |
| Hit slot | Illustration Rare | 11% |
| Hit slot | Special Illustration Rare | 3% |
| Hit slot | Hyper Rare (Gold) | 1.2% |
Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.
FAQ
How many packs are in a Stellar Crown booster box?
36 packs of 10 cards. It also comes as a 9-pack Elite Trainer Box, a 6-pack Booster Bundle and a 4-pack Build & Battle Box.
What are the Special Illustration Rare odds in Stellar Crown?
About 1 in 33 packs by community estimates, with gold Hyper Rares near 1 in 83 and Illustration Rares roughly 1 in 9.
Are these Stellar Crown pull rates official?
No — The Pokémon Company publishes no pull rates. The figures are community estimates and should be read as approximations.
What are the odds a Booster Box (36 packs) of Stellar Crown pays for itself?
About 5% after ~15% selling fees (11% before fees) as of 2026-09-11, computed from the exact outcome distribution of the Stellar Crown pack model rather than a simulation. The median Booster Box (36 packs) returns $152.79 of cards after fees against its $309.02 price, and the chance of at least doubling your money is under 0.5%. These odds refresh with every two-hourly price update.
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