Right now: the best rip in Surging Sparks is the Booster Pack at $7.90 against $5.09 of expected pulls — a −45% margin after ~15% selling fees, and a 10% chance it actually pays for itself. Figures refresh every two hours.
Surging Sparks, out November 8, 2024, is a one-card set as far as EV is concerned: the Special Illustration Rare Pikachu ex is one of the most valuable pulls in all of Scarlet & Violet, and it drags the set's average up while sitting behind roughly 1-in-33 SIR odds — and that's the rate for any SIR, not that one specifically.
Everything else is standard SV structure: ten cards, a guaranteed reverse holo, a Double Rare in about 30% of rare slots, an Ultra Rare 1 in 10, an ACE SPEC 1 in 20, an Illustration Rare roughly 1 in 9 packs and a gold Hyper Rare near 1 in 83. Community estimates throughout.
That combination — lottery-ticket EV in a set with an ordinary floor — has kept every product modeling below cost at recent prices, from loose packs to the 36-pack booster box. If the Pikachu is the goal, the live table below makes the singles case for you.
Sealed products: price vs. expected value
| Product | Margin after ~15% fees | Market price | EV of pulls | Odds it pays for itself |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | −45% | $7.90 | $5.09 | 10% |
| Elite Trainer Box | −68% | $122.93 | $45.78 | 6% |
| Booster Bundle | −58% | $62.02 | $30.52 | 7% |
| Booster Box (36 packs) | −49% | $302.31 | $183.13 | 12% |
| Build & Battle Box | −72% | $61.60 | $20.35 | 4% |
Pull-rate model
Surging Sparks packs hold 10 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.
| Slot | Outcome | Est. chance |
|---|---|---|
| Reverse Holo | Reverse Holo | 100% |
| Holo Rare slot | Rare | 55% |
| Holo Rare slot | Double Rare | 30% |
| Holo Rare slot | Ultra Rare | 10% |
| Holo Rare slot | ACE SPEC Rare | 5% |
| Hit slot | Holo Rare (baseline) | 84.8% |
| Hit slot | Illustration Rare | 11% |
| Hit slot | Special Illustration Rare | 3% |
| Hit slot | Hyper Rare (Gold) | 1.2% |
Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.
FAQ
What is the biggest chase in Surging Sparks?
The Special Illustration Rare Pikachu ex, one of the most valuable cards of the Scarlet & Violet era. SIRs as a tier land about 1 in 33 packs by community estimates.
How many packs are in a Surging Sparks booster box?
36 packs of 10 cards. Other formats: 9-pack Elite Trainer Box, 6-pack Booster Bundle, 4-pack Build & Battle Box.
Are Surging Sparks pull rates official?
No. Pull rates shown here are community estimates from large opening samples; no official rates exist.
What are the odds a Booster Pack of Surging Sparks pays for itself?
About 10% after ~15% selling fees (11% before fees) as of 2026-09-11, computed from the exact outcome distribution of the Surging Sparks pack model rather than a simulation. The median Booster Pack returns $1.26 of cards after fees against its $7.90 price, and the chance of at least doubling your money is 4%. These odds refresh with every two-hourly price update.
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