Right now: the best rip in Lost Origin is the Booster Pack at $19.18 against $6.04 of expected pulls — a −73% margin after ~15% selling fees. Figures refresh every two hours.
Lost Origin, released September 9, 2022, is a one-card economy. The Giratina V alternate art became one of the most expensive pulls of the entire Sword & Shield era, and it drags the rest of the set — the Lost Zone mechanic's return, a Trainer Gallery subset, Giratina VSTAR — along behind it.
The odds are the standard SWSH story. Community estimates put any hit-slot upgrade at about 1 in 9 packs, a full or alternate art at roughly 1 in 12, and gold secrets near 1 in 100. But an alt-art pull is drawn from the whole alt pool, so landing the Giratina specifically is a long shot layered on a long shot. That's brutal variance: most of the set's expected value lives in a card most boxes never produce.
Lost Origin also has the widest product spread we track in this era — packs, Elite Trainer Box, Booster Bundle, booster box, Build & Battle, Premium and Ultra-Premium Collections — and their premiums differ a lot. The live tables below rank them by what the cards actually give back.
Sealed products: price vs. expected value
| Product | Margin after ~15% fees | Market price | EV of pulls |
|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | −73% | $19.18 | $6.04 |
| Elite Trainer Box | −82% | $222.06 | $48.32 |
| Booster Bundle | −85% | $198.83 | $36.24 |
| Booster Box (36 packs) | −75% | $733.31 | $217.44 |
| Build & Battle Box | −74% | $79.62 | $24.16 |
| Ultra-Premium Collection | −79% | $383.66 | $96.64 |
| Premium Collection | −89% | $273.24 | $36.24 |
Pull-rate model
Lost Origin packs hold 10 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.
| Slot | Outcome | Est. chance |
|---|---|---|
| Reverse Holo | Reverse Holo | 100% |
| Holo Rare slot | Rare Holo | 66% |
| Holo Rare slot | Rare Holo V | 27% |
| Holo Rare slot | Rare Holo VMAX | 7% |
| Hit slot | Holo Rare (baseline) | 89% |
| Hit slot | Full / Alt Art | 8% |
| Hit slot | Rainbow Rare | 2% |
| Hit slot | Gold Secret | 1% |
Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.
FAQ
What products exist for Lost Origin?
Seven tracked products: single packs, the Elite Trainer Box (8 packs), Booster Bundle (6 packs), 36-pack booster box, Build & Battle Box (4 packs), Premium Collection (6 packs) and the Ultra-Premium Collection (16 packs).
What is the top chase card in Lost Origin?
The Giratina V alternate art, one of the priciest cards of the whole Sword & Shield era. Giratina VSTAR and the Trainer Gallery's rarest cards form the tier below it.
Are these Lost Origin pull rates exact?
No. They're community estimates from aggregated opening data, since official pull rates are never published. Expect real-world results to vary around them.
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