Brilliant Stars Pack EV & Pull Rates — Rip or Skip?

Right now: the best rip in Brilliant Stars is the Build & Battle Box at $61.97 against $21.61 of expected pulls — a −70% margin after ~15% selling fees. Figures refresh every two hours.

Brilliant Stars, out February 25, 2022, did three things at once: it introduced the VSTAR mechanic, debuted the Trainer Gallery subset, and added Radiant rares — and it wrapped all of it around a Charizard chase. The Charizard V alternate art and Charizard VSTAR headline, with Arceus VSTAR close behind.

The slot model is slightly richer than its neighbors. Community estimates put any hit-slot upgrade at roughly 1 in 8 packs, a VSTAR or VMAX in the holo slot near 1 in 10, and Radiants around 1 in 33. Trainer Gallery alt-art hits are the scarce prize at about 1 in 50.

Charizard concentration is the whole EV story here. A handful of cards carry most of the set's singles value, so the average pack lives or dies on tiers you'll rarely see. The tables below track what packs, Elite Trainer Boxes and booster boxes cost right now against what actually comes out of them.

Sealed products: price vs. expected value

ProductMargin after ~15% feesMarket priceEV of pulls
Booster Pack −73% $16.78 $5.40
Elite Trainer Box −79% $175.31 $43.22
Booster Box (36 packs) −74% $631.89 $194.51
Build & Battle Box −70% $61.97 $21.61

Pull-rate model

Brilliant Stars packs hold 10 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.

SlotOutcomeEst. chance
Reverse HoloReverse Holo100%
Holo Rare slotRare Holo60%
Holo Rare slotRare Holo V27%
Holo Rare slotVSTAR / VMAX10%
Holo Rare slotRadiant Rare3%
Hit slotHolo Rare (baseline)87%
Hit slotFull / Alt Art8%
Hit slotTrainer Gallery Alt2%
Hit slotRainbow Rare2%
Hit slotGold Secret1%

Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.

FAQ

What did Brilliant Stars introduce to the Pokémon TCG?

Three firsts for the English game: the VSTAR mechanic, the Trainer Gallery subset of character-art reprints, and Radiant rares. It released February 25, 2022.

How many packs are in a Brilliant Stars booster box and ETB?

The booster box carries 36 packs; the Elite Trainer Box carries 8. The Build & Battle Box adds 4 more. All packs are 10 cards.

What's the top pull in Brilliant Stars?

The Charizard V alternate art, with Charizard VSTAR and Arceus VSTAR in the tier behind it. Golds and Trainer Gallery alt arts round out the rarest slots.

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