Rebel Clash Pull Rates & Pack EV: The Honest Math

Right now: the best rip in Rebel Clash is the Booster Pack at $9.62 against $3.88 of expected pulls — a −66% margin after ~15% selling fees. Figures refresh every two hours.

Rebel Clash, released May 1, 2020, is the honest low point of the Sword & Shield era, and pretending otherwise would be malpractice. The second SWSH expansion simply never produced a defining chase card — its VMAX lineup is serviceable for play, but nothing here ever became a poster.

The odds are identical to its siblings: community estimates say about 1 in 9 packs upgrades the hit slot, alt and full arts land near 1 in 12, golds around 1 in 100. Same slot machine, smaller jackpots — when the best cards in the set are modest, good luck still pays poorly. That's the part pull-rate tables alone won't tell you.

The silver lining is that weak chase sets make cheap singles: if you want Rebel Clash cards, buying them outright costs a fraction of hunting them. The live tables below show what packs, Elite Trainer Boxes, booster boxes and Build & Battle kits return at current prices.

Sealed products: price vs. expected value

ProductMargin after ~15% feesMarket priceEV of pulls
Booster Pack −66% $9.62 $3.88
Elite Trainer Box −91% $304.63 $31.04
Booster Box (36 packs) −76% $495.76 $139.70
Build & Battle Box −82% $74.97 $15.52

Pull-rate model

Rebel Clash packs hold 10 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.

SlotOutcomeEst. chance
Reverse HoloReverse Holo100%
Holo Rare slotRare Holo66%
Holo Rare slotRare Holo V27%
Holo Rare slotRare Holo VMAX7%
Hit slotHolo Rare (baseline)89%
Hit slotFull / Alt Art8%
Hit slotRainbow Rare2%
Hit slotGold Secret1%

Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.

FAQ

Does Rebel Clash have a big chase card?

Not really — it's the rare SWSH set without a defining pull. Its rainbow and gold secrets top the checklist, but none reached icon status like the era's Charizard or Eeveelution chases.

What sealed products exist for Rebel Clash?

Single packs, the 8-pack Elite Trainer Box, the 36-pack booster box and the 4-pack Build & Battle Box, all tracked live on this page.

Are Rebel Clash pull rates different from other SWSH sets?

No — the slot structure and estimated odds match the standard Sword & Shield template. What differs is the value of the cards behind those odds.

🎴 Rip a Rebel Clash pack yourself — simulated, real odds, live prices →