Darkness Ablaze EV & Pull Rates — Worth Opening?

Right now: the best rip in Darkness Ablaze is the Booster Pack at $9.98 against $3.33 of expected pulls — a −72% margin after ~15% selling fees. Figures refresh every two hours.

Darkness Ablaze, released August 14, 2020, gave the Sword & Shield era its first proper Charizard VMAX — and in the summer the boom ignited, that was enough to make this set an icon. It's still the reason anyone opens it.

Structurally it's the standard early-SWSH pack: reverse slot, holo slot, hit slot. Community estimates put any hit-slot upgrade at about 1 in 9 packs, full or alternate arts near 1 in 12, rainbows around 1 in 50 and golds about 1 in 100. The Charizard VMAX and its rainbow version tower over a checklist where most Vs and VMAXes carry little value, so expected value per pack leans hard on outcomes you'll rarely see.

Sealed prices have long reflected the Charizard association more than the set's actual depth. The live tables below compare packs, Elite Trainer Boxes, booster boxes, Build & Battle kits and the Premium Collection on what they return right now.

Sealed products: price vs. expected value

ProductMargin after ~15% feesMarket priceEV of pulls
Booster Pack −72% $9.98 $3.33
Elite Trainer Box −83% $133.34 $26.65
Booster Box (36 packs) −72% $369.71 $119.92
Build & Battle Box −81% $60.59 $13.32
Premium Collection −91% $185.16 $19.99

Pull-rate model

Darkness Ablaze packs hold 10 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.

SlotOutcomeEst. chance
Reverse HoloReverse Holo100%
Holo Rare slotRare Holo66%
Holo Rare slotRare Holo V27%
Holo Rare slotRare Holo VMAX7%
Hit slotHolo Rare (baseline)89%
Hit slotFull / Alt Art8%
Hit slotRainbow Rare2%
Hit slotGold Secret1%

Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.

FAQ

What's the top card in Darkness Ablaze?

Charizard VMAX — the standard holo version and its rainbow secret are both far ahead of everything else in the set. It was the era's first Charizard VMAX.

How many packs are in Darkness Ablaze products?

The booster box carries 36 packs, the Elite Trainer Box 8, the Build & Battle Box 4 and the Premium Collection 6. Packs hold 10 cards.

Are the pull rates for Darkness Ablaze exact?

No — they're community estimates from large opening samples. The Pokémon Company doesn't publish official rates for any set.

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