Lycoris Recoil Pull Rates & Pack EV — Worth Ripping?

Right now: the best rip in Lycoris Recoil is the Booster Pack at $4.73 against $2.99 of expected pulls — a −46% margin after ~15% selling fees, and a 11% chance it actually pays for itself. Figures refresh every two hours.

Lycoris Recoil is a Weiss Schwarz set released 2024-03-22. This page tracks whether its sealed products are worth opening: live TCGPlayer market prices for every product, the expected value of the cards inside, and the pull-rate model behind the math.

9-card pack, 16 packs per box: most packs carry a Rare plus a foil, with RRR and rarer tiers landing about 1 in 8–10 packs. Signed and serial-numbered variants aren't modeled. Pull rates are community estimates.

Sealed products: price vs. expected value

ProductMargin after ~15% feesMarket priceEV of pullsOdds it pays for itself
Booster Pack −46% $4.73 $2.99 11%
Booster Box (16 packs) −59% $98.88 $47.84 0%

Pull-rate model

Lycoris Recoil packs hold 9 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.

SlotOutcomeEst. chance
Rare slotCommon50%
Rare slotUncommon30%
Rare slotRare20%
Hit slotRare (foil)55%
Hit slotSuper Rare25%
Hit slotTriple Rare (RRR)12%
Hit slotSpecial Rare6%
Hit slotSuper-Special2%

Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.

FAQ

What are the odds a Booster Pack of Lycoris Recoil pays for itself?

About 11% after ~15% selling fees (13% before fees) as of 2026-09-11, computed from the exact outcome distribution of the Lycoris Recoil pack model rather than a simulation. The median Booster Pack returns $1.28 of cards after fees against its $4.73 price, and the chance of at least doubling your money is 2%. These odds refresh with every two-hourly price update.

🎴 Rip a Lycoris Recoil pack yourself — simulated, real odds, live prices →