Right now: the best rip in Lycoris Recoil is the Booster Pack at $4.73 against $2.99 of expected pulls — a −46% margin after ~15% selling fees, and a 11% chance it actually pays for itself. Figures refresh every two hours.
Lycoris Recoil is a Weiss Schwarz set released 2024-03-22. This page tracks whether its sealed products are worth opening: live TCGPlayer market prices for every product, the expected value of the cards inside, and the pull-rate model behind the math.
9-card pack, 16 packs per box: most packs carry a Rare plus a foil, with RRR and rarer tiers landing about 1 in 8–10 packs. Signed and serial-numbered variants aren't modeled. Pull rates are community estimates.
Sealed products: price vs. expected value
| Product | Margin after ~15% fees | Market price | EV of pulls | Odds it pays for itself |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | −46% | $4.73 | $2.99 | 11% |
| Booster Box (16 packs) | −59% | $98.88 | $47.84 | 0% |
Pull-rate model
Lycoris Recoil packs hold 9 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.
| Slot | Outcome | Est. chance |
|---|---|---|
| Rare slot | Common | 50% |
| Rare slot | Uncommon | 30% |
| Rare slot | Rare | 20% |
| Hit slot | Rare (foil) | 55% |
| Hit slot | Super Rare | 25% |
| Hit slot | Triple Rare (RRR) | 12% |
| Hit slot | Special Rare | 6% |
| Hit slot | Super-Special | 2% |
Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.
FAQ
What are the odds a Booster Pack of Lycoris Recoil pays for itself?
About 11% after ~15% selling fees (13% before fees) as of 2026-09-11, computed from the exact outcome distribution of the Lycoris Recoil pack model rather than a simulation. The median Booster Pack returns $1.28 of cards after fees against its $4.73 price, and the chance of at least doubling your money is 2%. These odds refresh with every two-hourly price update.
🎴 Rip a Lycoris Recoil pack yourself — simulated, real odds, live prices →