Right now: the best rip in Lycoris Recoil is the Booster Pack at $4.73 against $3.95 of expected pulls — a −29% margin after ~15% selling fees, and a 13% chance it actually pays for itself. Figures refresh every two hours.
Lycoris Recoil (March 22, 2024) is a standard Weiss Schwarz booster: nine cards per pack, sixteen packs per box, one Rare-or-better slot and one foil hit slot. Its sealed character is a collector premium on a modest card list — no Special or Super-Special Rares in the priced catalog, a box priced well above its singles, and a modeled margin that runs deeply negative.
The hit slot pays a foil Rare over half the time, a Super Rare a quarter and a Triple Rare or better about one pack in five, but the top two tiers are empty here. The value is in Double Rares instead: Days That'll Continue On, Chisato leads clearly, with Chosen Place of Belonging, Takina; Walnut's Identity, Kurumi; and the Over-Frame Rare Naturally Gifted, Chisato behind it.
Loose packs and the 16-pack booster box are both priced, and the box has modeled worse than loose packs — the pack market hasn't matched the box premium. The probability-of-profit column is the number to read; for the box it has sat close to nil. Rates are community estimates; signed and serial-numbered variants aren't modeled. Live figures below.
Sealed products: price vs. expected value
| Product | Margin after ~15% fees | Market price | EV of pulls | Odds it pays for itself |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | −29% | $4.73 | $3.95 | 13% |
| Booster Box (16 packs) | −47% | $101.32 | $63.18 | 6% |
Pull-rate model
Lycoris Recoil packs hold 9 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.
| Slot | Outcome | Est. chance |
|---|---|---|
| Rare slot | Common | 50% |
| Rare slot | Uncommon | 30% |
| Rare slot | Rare | 20% |
| Hit slot | Rare (foil) | 55% |
| Hit slot | Super Rare | 25% |
| Hit slot | Triple Rare (RRR) | 12% |
| Hit slot | Special Rare | 6% |
| Hit slot | Super-Special | 2% |
Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.
FAQ
What are the chase cards in Lycoris Recoil Weiss Schwarz?
Days That'll Continue On, Chisato (Double Rare) is the clear leader. Chosen Place of Belonging, Takina; Walnut's Identity, Kurumi; and Naturally Gifted, Chisato (Over-Frame Rare) follow. The priced catalog has no Special or Super-Special Rare tier at all.
How many packs are in a Lycoris Recoil booster box?
Sixteen packs of nine cards each. Both the box and loose packs are market-priced, and the box has modeled the worse of the two — the live table shows each row's fee-adjusted margin separately.
Are Lycoris Recoil pull rates official?
No. Bushiroad doesn't publish Weiss Schwarz rates; the slot odds here are community estimates. The model's Special and Super-Special tiers are unpopulated for this set, and signed or serial-numbered variants are excluded.
What are the odds a Booster Pack of Lycoris Recoil pays for itself?
About 13% after ~15% selling fees (16% before fees) as of 2026-10-27, computed from the exact outcome distribution of the Lycoris Recoil pack model rather than a simulation. The median Booster Pack returns $1.18 of cards after fees against its $4.73 price, and the chance of at least doubling your money is 5%. These odds refresh with every two-hourly price update.
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