Right now: the best rip in XY is the Booster Box (36 packs) at $3728.00 against $319.05 of expected pulls — a −93% margin after ~15% selling fees, and a 0% chance it actually pays for itself. Figures refresh every two hours.
XY, the February 5, 2014 set that opened Pokémon's XY series, uses the era's 10-card pack: a reverse holo plus a single rare slot with no separate hit slot. As vintage sealed, its packs and boxes trade at collector premiums, so rip margins model deeply negative by design; the singles market, not the pack price, is the real signal here.
Everything worth chasing shares that one rare slot. Community estimates put a Pokémon-EX at roughly 1 in 8 packs and a full-art Ultra Rare near 1 in 30; the model also reserves a Secret Rare slice around 1 in 70, though the priced XY card list has no Secret Rare tier. Full arts carry the set: Blastoise-EX, Xerneas-EX, Venusaur-EX and Yveltal-EX lead, with M Blastoise-EX behind.
Two products are listed: loose Booster Packs and the 36-pack Booster Box. No Elite Trainer Box listing is tracked. The live table below pairs each product's sealed price with a fee-adjusted EV built from those community-estimated rates and current singles prices, so expect the margin column to read as a collector tax rather than a bargain; the numbers refresh every couple of hours.
Sealed products: price vs. expected value
| Product | Margin after ~15% fees | Market price | EV of pulls | Odds it pays for itself |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | −94% | $133.34 | $8.86 | 1% |
| Booster Box (36 packs) | −93% | $3728.00 | $319.05 | 0% |
Pull-rate model
XY packs hold 10 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.
| Slot | Outcome | Est. chance |
|---|---|---|
| Reverse Holo | Reverse Holo | 100% |
| Rare slot | Rare | 62% |
| Rare slot | Rare Holo | 21.5% |
| Rare slot | Pokémon-EX | 12% |
| Rare slot | Full Art (Ultra) | 3% |
| Rare slot | Secret Rare | 1.5% |
Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.
FAQ
How many packs are in an XY base set booster box?
36 packs, each with 10 cards: a reverse holo and one rare slot. Elite Trainer Boxes from the XY era hold 8 packs, though no ETB listing is tracked for this set, so the table covers loose packs and the 36-pack box.
What are the chase cards in XY base set?
The full-art Pokémon-EX cards: Blastoise-EX, Xerneas-EX, Venusaur-EX and Yveltal-EX sit at the top, with Emolga-EX and Skarmory-EX full arts and the regular M Blastoise-EX and M Venusaur-EX behind them. Full arts land about 1 in 30 packs by community estimate.
Are the XY pull rates official?
No. The Pokémon Company doesn't publish pull rates, so the model uses community estimates for the era: a Pokémon-EX roughly 1 in 8 packs and a full art about 1 in 30. Treat the odds as reasonable approximations, not print-sheet facts.
What are the odds a Booster Box (36 packs) of XY pays for itself?
About 0% after ~15% selling fees (0% before fees) as of 2026-10-27, computed from the exact outcome distribution of the XY pack model rather than a simulation. The median Booster Box (36 packs) returns $255.00 of cards after fees against its $3728.00 price, and the chance of at least doubling your money is under 0.5%. These odds refresh with every two-hourly price update.
🎴 Rip a XY pack yourself — simulated, real odds, live prices →