Right now: the best rip in XY is the Booster Box (36 packs) at $3728.00 against $301.37 of expected pulls — a −93% margin after ~15% selling fees, and a 0% chance it actually pays for itself. Figures refresh every two hours.
XY is a Pokémon set released 2014/02/05. This page tracks whether its sealed products are worth opening: live TCGPlayer market prices for every product, the expected value of the cards inside, and the pull-rate model behind the math.
XY-era pack (10 cards): a reverse holo, and a rare slot where Pokémon-EX land roughly 1 in 8 packs, full arts about 1 in 30 and secret rares about 1 in 70. Vintage sealed: prices are collector premiums, so rip margins are deeply negative by design — the singles market is the real signal, and pokemontcg.io prices it. Elite Trainer Boxes of this era hold 8 packs. Pull rates are community estimates.
Sealed products: price vs. expected value
| Product | Margin after ~15% fees | Market price | EV of pulls | Odds it pays for itself |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | −94% | $125.13 | $8.37 | 1% |
| Booster Box (36 packs) | −93% | $3728.00 | $301.37 | 0% |
Pull-rate model
XY packs hold 10 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.
| Slot | Outcome | Est. chance |
|---|---|---|
| Reverse Holo | Reverse Holo | 100% |
| Rare slot | Rare | 62% |
| Rare slot | Rare Holo | 21.5% |
| Rare slot | Pokémon-EX | 12% |
| Rare slot | Full Art (Ultra) | 3% |
| Rare slot | Secret Rare | 1.5% |
Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.
FAQ
What are the odds a Booster Box (36 packs) of XY pays for itself?
About 0% after ~15% selling fees (0% before fees) as of 2026-09-11, computed from the exact outcome distribution of the XY pack model rather than a simulation. The median Booster Box (36 packs) returns $242.12 of cards after fees against its $3728.00 price, and the chance of at least doubling your money is under 0.5%. These odds refresh with every two-hourly price update.
🎴 Rip a XY pack yourself — simulated, real odds, live prices →