Right now: the best rip in Flashfire is the Booster Pack at $160.43 against $17.21 of expected pulls — a −91% margin after ~15% selling fees, and a 3% chance it actually pays for itself. Figures refresh every two hours.
Flashfire (May 7, 2014) is the second XY-series set and the one Charizard collectors chase hardest. Packs hold 10 cards: a reverse holo and a single rare slot with no separate hit slot. As vintage sealed, loose packs trade at steep collector premiums, so rip margins model deeply negative by design; the singles market, not the pack price, is the real signal.
Community estimates put a Pokémon-EX at roughly 1 in 8 packs, a full art near 1 in 30 and a Secret Rare around 1 in 70. The Secret Rare M Charizard-EX is the priciest card in the set by a wide margin; the second secret print, the regular M Charizard-EX and the full-art Charizard-EX trail it, with M Kangaskhan-EX and Pokémon Center Lady as consolation chases.
Only loose Booster Packs are listed for Flashfire; no booster box or Elite Trainer Box listing is tracked here, so the live table is a single row. It pairs the pack price with a fee-adjusted EV built from community-estimated rates and current singles prices, and with so much value concentrated in the secrets, variance is enormous. The numbers below refresh every couple of hours.
Sealed products: price vs. expected value
| Product | Margin after ~15% fees | Market price | EV of pulls | Odds it pays for itself |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | −91% | $160.43 | $17.21 | 3% |
Pull-rate model
Flashfire packs hold 10 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.
| Slot | Outcome | Est. chance |
|---|---|---|
| Reverse Holo | Reverse Holo | 100% |
| Rare slot | Rare | 62% |
| Rare slot | Rare Holo | 21.5% |
| Rare slot | Pokémon-EX | 12% |
| Rare slot | Full Art (Ultra) | 3% |
| Rare slot | Secret Rare | 1.5% |
Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.
FAQ
What are the chase cards in Flashfire?
Both Secret Rare M Charizard-EX prints top the list, followed by the regular M Charizard-EX and the full-art Charizard-EX. Secret Rare M Kangaskhan-EX and the full-art Pokémon Center Lady and Lysandre Trainers are the next tier down.
How many packs are in a Flashfire booster box?
XY-era booster boxes hold 36 packs and Elite Trainer Boxes hold 8, but neither product has a listing tracked for Flashfire. The live table currently models loose 10-card Booster Packs only.
Are Flashfire pull rates official?
No. The Pokémon Company doesn't publish pull rates. The model uses community estimates for XY-era packs: Pokémon-EX roughly 1 in 8, full arts about 1 in 30 and Secret Rares near 1 in 70, all sharing one rare slot.
What are the odds a Booster Pack of Flashfire pays for itself?
About 3% after ~15% selling fees (3% before fees) as of 2026-10-27, computed from the exact outcome distribution of the Flashfire pack model rather than a simulation. The median Booster Pack returns $2.25 of cards after fees against its $160.43 price, and the chance of at least doubling your money is 1%. These odds refresh with every two-hourly price update.
🎴 Rip a Flashfire pack yourself — simulated, real odds, live prices →