Duelist Nexus Pull Rates & Pack EV — Worth Ripping?

Right now: the best rip in Duelist Nexus is the Booster Box [1st Ed] (24 packs) at $42.65 against $46.89 of expected pulls — a −7% margin after ~15% selling fees, and a 28% chance it actually pays for itself. Figures refresh every two hours.

Duelist Nexus is a Yu-Gi-Oh! set released 2023/07/28. This page tracks whether its sealed products are worth opening: live TCGPlayer market prices for every product, the expected value of the cards inside, and the pull-rate model behind the math.

Standard core booster: 9 cards per pack, 24 packs per box, about one foil (Super Rare or better) per pack with Ultras roughly 1 in 6, Secrets 1 in 12 and the top tier about one per case. Quarter Century Secret Rares replace the Starlight tier in this set.Sealed products listed are the 1st Edition print run where TCGPlayer separates them. Pull rates are community estimates.

Sealed products: price vs. expected value

ProductMargin after ~15% feesMarket priceEV of pullsOdds it pays for itself
Booster Pack [1st Ed] −17% $1.99 $1.95 15%
Booster Box [1st Ed] (24 packs) −7% $42.65 $46.89 28%

Pull-rate model

Duelist Nexus packs hold 9 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.

SlotOutcomeEst. chance
Rare slotRare100%
Foil hit slotSuper Rare65%
Foil hit slotUltra Rare27%
Foil hit slotSecret Rare7%
Foil hit slotStarlight / QC Secret1%

Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.

FAQ

What are the odds a Booster Box [1st Ed] (24 packs) of Duelist Nexus pays for itself?

About 28% after ~15% selling fees (47% before fees) as of 2026-09-11, computed from the exact outcome distribution of the Duelist Nexus pack model rather than a simulation. The median Booster Box [1st Ed] (24 packs) returns $35.37 of cards after fees against its $42.65 price, and the chance of at least doubling your money is 4%. These odds refresh with every two-hourly price update.

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