Right now: the best rip in Theros Beyond Death is the Draft Booster Box (36 packs) at $180.48 against $129.58 of expected pulls — a −39% margin after ~15% selling fees, and a 3% chance it actually pays for itself. Figures refresh every two hours.
Theros Beyond Death, the Standard Magic set released January 24, 2020, shipped in 15-card Draft Boosters: one rare-or-mythic, three uncommons, ten commons and a land, with a foil replacing a common in about one pack in three. Draft Boosters were retired with Play Boosters in 2024, so supply is fixed and sealed prices reflect that scarcity more than the card list does.
The model follows the published Draft Booster collation: a mythic in about one rare slot in 7.4, a rare foil near 1 in 33 packs and a mythic foil around 1 in 200. There is no single monster here; the value is spread across Shadowspear, a rare, plus Nyxbloom Ancient, Thassa's Oracle and Thassa, Deep-Dwelling, which sit close together at the top of the list.
Three products are tracked: the loose Draft Booster, the 36-pack Draft Booster Box and the 10-pack Bundle. Only the packs count toward EV, so the Bundle's price premium for its extras buys nothing in the model, and the box has priced far kinder per pack than either alternative. Collector Boosters aren't modeled. Margins are negative throughout; the live table below shows by how much.
Sealed products: price vs. expected value
| Product | Margin after ~15% fees | Market price | EV of pulls | Odds it pays for itself |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft Booster Pack | −55% | $6.80 | $3.60 | 12% |
| Draft Booster Box (36 packs) | −39% | $180.48 | $129.58 | 3% |
| Bundle (10 Draft Boosters) | −73% | $112.44 | $36.00 | 0% |
Pull-rate model
Theros Beyond Death packs hold 15 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.
| Slot | Outcome | Est. chance |
|---|---|---|
| Rare/Mythic slot | Rare | 86.5% |
| Rare/Mythic slot | Mythic | 13.5% |
| Foil slot (≈1 in 3 packs) | No foil (bulk) | 67% |
| Foil slot (≈1 in 3 packs) | Common Foil | 21% |
| Foil slot (≈1 in 3 packs) | Uncommon Foil | 8.5% |
| Foil slot (≈1 in 3 packs) | Rare Foil | 3% |
| Foil slot (≈1 in 3 packs) | Mythic Foil | 0.5% |
Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.
FAQ
How many packs are in a Theros Beyond Death booster box?
36 Draft Boosters of 15 cards each. The Bundle holds 10 Draft Boosters. Collector Boosters were sold separately with different contents and aren't modeled; the table covers the loose pack, the box and the Bundle.
What are the chase cards in Theros Beyond Death?
Shadowspear, a rare, tops the list in both its regular and Extended Art printings, with Nyxbloom Ancient, Thassa's Oracle and Thassa, Deep-Dwelling close behind. The value is spread rather than concentrated, which keeps individual pack outcomes fairly flat.
Is the Theros Beyond Death Bundle worth it?
Not on pack math. The model values the Bundle purely as 10 Draft Boosters, so whatever you pay for the extras is pure premium. Its margin has lagged the 36-pack box by a wide gap; the live table shows the current spread.
What are the odds a Draft Booster Box (36 packs) of Theros Beyond Death pays for itself?
About 3% after ~15% selling fees (10% before fees) as of 2026-10-27, computed from the exact outcome distribution of the Theros Beyond Death pack model rather than a simulation. The median Draft Booster Box (36 packs) returns $106.97 of cards after fees against its $180.48 price, and the chance of at least doubling your money is under 0.5%. These odds refresh with every two-hourly price update.
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