Right now: the best rip in Sun & Moon is the Booster Pack at $21.47 against $4.65 of expected pulls — a −82% margin after ~15% selling fees. Figures refresh every two hours.
The Sun & Moon base set opened the era on February 3, 2017, swapping EX cards for the new GX mechanic. The full-art Lillie trainer is the undisputed chase, with the gold secret Solgaleo-GX and Lunala-GX behind her.
Odds run on the standard SM model: an ultra rare or better roughly 1 in 10 to 11 packs, rainbows near 1 in 50, golds about 1 in 100, and a GX appearing in the holo slot roughly 1 in 9 packs. These are community estimates — no official pull rates exist.
Base sets get printed in volume, and this one was no exception, which keeps it at the cheaper end of vintage SM. Two Elite Trainer Box variants exist, Solgaleo and Lunala; we track the cheaper Solgaleo version, with Lunala typically running slightly higher. The EV picture is familiar: value concentrates in Lillie and a few golds, the average pack returns a baseline holo, and the sealed premium eats the difference. The live table below shows today's gap.
Sealed products: price vs. expected value
| Product | Margin after ~15% fees | Market price | EV of pulls |
|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | −82% | $21.47 | $4.65 |
| Elite Trainer Box | −87% | $241.90 | $37.18 |
| Booster Box (36 packs) | −85% | $942.35 | $167.31 |
Pull-rate model
Sun & Moon packs hold 10 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.
| Slot | Outcome | Est. chance |
|---|---|---|
| Reverse Holo | Reverse Holo | 100% |
| Holo Rare slot | Rare / Rare Holo | 89% |
| Holo Rare slot | Rare Holo GX | 11% |
| Hit slot | Holo Rare (baseline) | 90.5% |
| Hit slot | Full Art Ultra | 6.5% |
| Hit slot | Rainbow Rare | 2% |
| Hit slot | Gold Secret | 1% |
Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.
FAQ
What is the chase card in the Sun & Moon base set?
The full-art Lillie trainer, followed by the gold secret versions of Solgaleo-GX and Lunala-GX and the set's other GX full arts.
Why are there two Sun & Moon Elite Trainer Boxes?
The set launched with Solgaleo and Lunala ETB variants, each containing 8 packs. We list the cheaper Solgaleo version; the Lunala box usually trades slightly higher.
Are these pull rates official?
No — The Pokémon Company doesn't publish pull rates. The odds here are community estimates built from Sun & Moon era box-break data.
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