Right now: the best rip in Evolutions is the Booster Pack at $72.50 against $8.23 of expected pulls — a −90% margin after ~15% selling fees, and a 2% chance it actually pays for itself. Figures refresh every two hours.
Evolutions (November 2, 2016) closes the XY series and uses the era's 10-card pack: a reverse holo and a single rare slot shared by holos, Pokémon-EX, BREAK cards, full arts and secrets, with no separate hit slot. As vintage sealed, packs, boxes and the Elite Trainer Box all trade at collector premiums, so rip margins model deeply negative by design; singles are the real signal.
Community estimates give the rare slot a Pokémon-EX roughly 1 in 8 packs, a BREAK about 1 in 13, a full art near 1 in 30 and a Secret Rare around 1 in 70. The oddity here is the plain Rare Holo Charizard, which trades like an Ultra Rare despite its 19% holo tier. Full-art M Charizard-EX leads outright, with M Blastoise-EX, Dragonite-EX, Mewtwo-EX and Misty's Determination behind it.
Three products are listed: loose Booster Packs, the 36-pack Booster Box and the 8-pack Elite Trainer Box. Per pack, the three price fairly close together by vintage standards, but none of them model anywhere near break-even. The live table pairs each sealed price with a fee-adjusted EV built from community-estimated rates and current singles prices; read the numbers below as a collector premium, refreshed every couple of hours.
Sealed products: price vs. expected value
| Product | Margin after ~15% fees | Market price | EV of pulls | Odds it pays for itself |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | −90% | $72.50 | $8.23 | 2% |
| Booster Box (36 packs) | −90% | $2642.00 | $296.16 | 0% |
| Elite Trainer Box | −93% | $746.74 | $65.81 | 0% |
Pull-rate model
Evolutions packs hold 10 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.
| Slot | Outcome | Est. chance |
|---|---|---|
| Reverse Holo | Reverse Holo | 100% |
| Rare slot | Rare | 57% |
| Rare slot | Rare Holo | 19% |
| Rare slot | BREAK | 7.5% |
| Rare slot | Pokémon-EX | 12% |
| Rare slot | Full Art (Ultra) | 3% |
| Rare slot | Secret Rare | 1.5% |
Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.
FAQ
How many packs are in an Evolutions booster box?
36 packs of 10 cards. The Evolutions Elite Trainer Box holds 8 packs, standard for XY-era ETBs, and loose packs are also listed, so the live table compares all three products side by side.
What are the chase cards in XY Evolutions?
Full-art M Charizard-EX leads, and the regular Rare Holo Charizard is close behind it despite being a plain holo. Full-art M Blastoise-EX, Dragonite-EX, Mewtwo-EX and M Venusaur-EX follow, with Misty's Determination the top full-art Trainer.
Is the Evolutions Elite Trainer Box worth it?
Not on rip math. Eight packs at a vintage collector price put its per-pack cost near the loose-pack and booster-box figures, and all three model deeply negative. If you want the box art and accessories, that's a collecting choice, not an EV one.
What are the odds a Booster Pack of Evolutions pays for itself?
About 2% after ~15% selling fees (2% before fees) as of 2026-10-27, computed from the exact outcome distribution of the Evolutions pack model rather than a simulation. The median Booster Pack returns $2.18 of cards after fees against its $72.50 price, and the chance of at least doubling your money is under 0.5%. These odds refresh with every two-hourly price update.
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