Right now: the best rip in Burning Shadows is the Booster Pack at $32.09 against $5.95 of expected pulls — a −84% margin after ~15% selling fees, and a 2% chance it actually pays for itself. Figures refresh every two hours.
Burning Shadows, out August 5, 2017, is where the rainbow Charizard-GX lives — one of the most iconic modern Charizards — alongside full-art Guzma, a trainer card that competitive play made famous. Between those two, this set carries some of the strongest name recognition in the Sun & Moon era.
Here's the math nobody quotes in the hype videos: the rainbow tier hits about 1 in 50 packs under our community-estimated model, and rainbow Charizard is just one card within that tier — the odds of pulling that specific card are far longer. An ultra rare of any kind lands roughly 1 in 10 to 11 packs, golds about 1 in 100.
That's the whole EV story. The set's value concentrates brutally in one Charizard and a couple of trainers, sealed prices are set by people imagining the best pack, and the average pack delivers a baseline holo. If you want the Charizard, the singles market sells certainty; the live table below prices the lottery.
Sealed products: price vs. expected value
| Product | Margin after ~15% fees | Market price | EV of pulls | Odds it pays for itself |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | −84% | $32.09 | $5.95 | 2% |
| Elite Trainer Box | −88% | $324.46 | $47.61 | 1% |
| Booster Box (36 packs) | −85% | $1243.10 | $214.23 | 0% |
Pull-rate model
Burning Shadows packs hold 10 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.
| Slot | Outcome | Est. chance |
|---|---|---|
| Reverse Holo | Reverse Holo | 100% |
| Holo Rare slot | Rare / Rare Holo | 89% |
| Holo Rare slot | Rare Holo GX | 11% |
| Hit slot | Holo Rare (baseline) | 90.5% |
| Hit slot | Full Art Ultra | 6.5% |
| Hit slot | Rainbow Rare | 2% |
| Hit slot | Gold Secret | 1% |
Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.
FAQ
What are the odds of pulling rainbow Charizard-GX from Burning Shadows?
The rainbow-rare tier hits about 1 in 50 packs in our community-estimated model, and rainbow Charizard-GX is one specific card within that tier — so the real odds are substantially longer than 1 in 50.
How many packs are in Burning Shadows products?
The booster box holds 36 packs, the Elite Trainer Box holds 8, and every pack has 10 cards.
What else is worth pulling besides the Charizard?
Full-art Guzma is the set's other famous card, and the gold secrets and remaining GX full arts fill out the chase tier.
What are the odds a Booster Pack of Burning Shadows pays for itself?
About 2% after ~15% selling fees (2% before fees) as of 2026-09-11, computed from the exact outcome distribution of the Burning Shadows pack model rather than a simulation. The median Booster Pack returns $1.95 of cards after fees against its $32.09 price, and the chance of at least doubling your money is under 0.5%. These odds refresh with every two-hourly price update.
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