Forbidden Light Pack EV — Rip It or Buy Singles?

Right now: the best rip in Forbidden Light is the Booster Pack at $41.99 against $13.47 of expected pulls — a −73% margin after ~15% selling fees. Figures refresh every two hours.

Forbidden Light, released May 4, 2018, is the Ultra Necrozma set. The regular GX, its full art and the rainbow secret are what people rip for, backed by a Prism Star lineup that adds a mid-tier hit worth caring about.

The model gives something better than a baseline holo roughly 1 in 6 to 7 packs: Prism Stars about 1 in 17, full arts near 1 in 15, rainbows around 1 in 50, golds about 1 in 100. A GX also lands in the holo slot roughly 1 in 9 packs. All of it is community-estimated — no official rates exist for any Pokémon set.

As vintage SM sets go, Forbidden Light sits toward the cheaper end for loose packs, which narrows the gap between price and rip value compared with the era's trophy sets. Narrower isn't closed, though — the average pack still returns less than it costs, and the live table below shows by how much today.

Sealed products: price vs. expected value

ProductMargin after ~15% feesMarket priceEV of pulls
Booster Pack −73% $41.99 $13.47
Elite Trainer Box −86% $648.74 $107.75
Booster Box (36 packs) −75% $1647.98 $484.87

Pull-rate model

Forbidden Light packs hold 10 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.

SlotOutcomeEst. chance
Reverse HoloReverse Holo100%
Holo Rare slotRare / Rare Holo89%
Holo Rare slotRare Holo GX11%
Hit slotHolo Rare (baseline)84.5%
Hit slotPrism Star / Shining6%
Hit slotFull Art Ultra6.5%
Hit slotRainbow Rare2%
Hit slotGold Secret1%

Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.

FAQ

What is the main chase in Forbidden Light?

Ultra Necrozma-GX in its regular, full-art and rainbow secret versions, alongside the set's Prism Star cards.

How many packs are in Forbidden Light sealed products?

The booster box holds 36 packs and the Elite Trainer Box holds 8. Each pack contains 10 cards.

Are the pull rates shown here official?

No — they're community estimates built from box-break data, applied to the era's known slot structure.

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