Right now: the best rip in Lost Thunder is the Booster Box (36 packs) at $1496.33 against $525.95 of expected pulls — a −70% margin after ~15% selling fees. Figures refresh every two hours.
Lost Thunder arrived on November 2, 2018 as the largest Pokémon set printed up to that point — 214-plus cards before secrets. Full-art Lugia-GX headlines the chase, with rainbow secrets and Prism Star cards filling out the top of the checklist.
The hit slot upgrades past a plain holo roughly 1 in 6 to 7 packs under our model: Prism Stars around 1 in 17, full arts about 1 in 15, rainbows near 1 in 50, golds around 1 in 100 — community estimates throughout. The sheer checklist size is the real EV story here: with this many rares and secrets, value gets diluted across a very long list, so most upgraded slots still miss the cards that matter.
Among SM-era boxes, Lost Thunder's 36-pack box tends to price closer to its rip value than most neighbors — closer, not close. There's also a Build & Battle Box in the lineup if you want the smallest sealed entry point. The live numbers below settle which product loses the least.
Sealed products: price vs. expected value
| Product | Margin after ~15% fees | Market price | EV of pulls |
|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | −78% | $57.73 | $14.61 |
| Elite Trainer Box | −85% | $667.44 | $116.88 |
| Booster Box (36 packs) | −70% | $1496.33 | $525.95 |
| Build & Battle Box | −72% | $179.42 | $58.44 |
Pull-rate model
Lost Thunder packs hold 10 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.
| Slot | Outcome | Est. chance |
|---|---|---|
| Reverse Holo | Reverse Holo | 100% |
| Holo Rare slot | Rare / Rare Holo | 89% |
| Holo Rare slot | Rare Holo GX | 11% |
| Hit slot | Holo Rare (baseline) | 84.5% |
| Hit slot | Prism Star / Shining | 6% |
| Hit slot | Full Art Ultra | 6.5% |
| Hit slot | Rainbow Rare | 2% |
| Hit slot | Gold Secret | 1% |
Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.
FAQ
What products exist for Lost Thunder?
Loose booster packs, an Elite Trainer Box with 8 packs, a 36-pack booster box, and a Build & Battle Box containing 4 packs plus a prerelease promo kit.
What is the top pull in Lost Thunder?
Full-art Lugia-GX is the headline chase, followed by the set's rainbow secrets and Prism Star cards.
Are Lost Thunder pull rates confirmed by Pokémon?
No. All rates shown are community estimates from break data — no official pull rates exist for any Pokémon set.
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