Right now: the best rip in Ultra Prism is the Booster Box (36 packs) at $1506.25 against $425.63 of expected pulls — a −76% margin after ~15% selling fees. Figures refresh every two hours.
Ultra Prism, out February 2, 2018, introduced Prism Star cards to the Pokémon TCG, and its gold secret Cynthia remains one of the era's signature trainer chases. Full-art trainers and the Necrozma GX lineup fill out the rest of the top end.
Our model puts a Prism Star at about 1 in 17 packs, full arts around 1 in 15, rainbows near 1 in 50 and golds — Cynthia's tier — about 1 in 100. Add it up and something better than a plain holo lands roughly 1 in 6 to 7 packs. These are community estimates; official rates don't exist.
Two Elite Trainer Box variants were printed, Dusk Mane Necrozma and Dawn Wings Necrozma — we track the cheaper Dusk Mane version, and Dawn Wings typically runs higher. Whichever variant you're looking at, the pattern is the same as most vintage SM product: the sealed premium is priced off the gold Cynthia outcome, and the average pack doesn't deliver it. Live numbers below.
Sealed products: price vs. expected value
| Product | Margin after ~15% fees | Market price | EV of pulls |
|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | −78% | $46.29 | $11.82 |
| Elite Trainer Box | −89% | $729.30 | $94.58 |
| Booster Box (36 packs) | −76% | $1506.25 | $425.63 |
Pull-rate model
Ultra Prism packs hold 10 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.
| Slot | Outcome | Est. chance |
|---|---|---|
| Reverse Holo | Reverse Holo | 100% |
| Holo Rare slot | Rare / Rare Holo | 89% |
| Holo Rare slot | Rare Holo GX | 11% |
| Hit slot | Holo Rare (baseline) | 84.5% |
| Hit slot | Prism Star / Shining | 6% |
| Hit slot | Full Art Ultra | 6.5% |
| Hit slot | Rainbow Rare | 2% |
| Hit slot | Gold Secret | 1% |
Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.
FAQ
Why are there two Ultra Prism Elite Trainer Boxes?
The set launched with two ETB variants, Dusk Mane Necrozma and Dawn Wings Necrozma. Contents are equivalent — 8 packs plus accessories. We list the cheaper Dusk Mane version; Dawn Wings usually trades higher.
What are Prism Star cards?
A special card class introduced in Ultra Prism, limited to one copy per deck and marked with a prism symbol. Under our model they land about 1 in 17 packs.
What is the top chase in Ultra Prism?
The gold secret Cynthia trainer, with the full-art trainers and Necrozma GX secrets behind it.
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