Right now: the best rip in Fates Collide is the Booster Pack at $43.78 against $9.35 of expected pulls — a −82% margin after ~15% selling fees, and a 3% chance it actually pays for itself. Figures refresh every two hours.
Fates Collide (May 2, 2016) is the tenth XY-series set, and it uses the era's late-format 10-card pack: a reverse holo and a single rare slot that now also hosts BREAK evolutions. There's no separate hit slot. As vintage sealed, packs and boxes carry collector premiums, so rip margins model deeply negative by design; the singles market is the real signal.
The rare slot does all the work. Community estimates put a Pokémon-EX at roughly 1 in 8 packs, a BREAK at about 1 in 13, a full art near 1 in 30 and the lone Secret Rare, a gold Alakazam-EX, around 1 in 70. Full-art Umbreon-EX is the other headline chase, with M Alakazam-EX, Glaceon-EX and Lugia BREAK filling out the top of the list.
Only two products are listed here: loose Booster Packs and the 36-pack Booster Box, with no Elite Trainer Box listing tracked for this set. The live table pairs each sealed price with a fee-adjusted EV built from the community-estimated rates above and current singles prices. Expect the margin to read as a collector premium rather than an opportunity; the numbers below refresh every couple of hours.
Sealed products: price vs. expected value
| Product | Margin after ~15% fees | Market price | EV of pulls | Odds it pays for itself |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | −82% | $43.78 | $9.35 | 3% |
| Booster Box (36 packs) | −90% | $2754.99 | $336.60 | 0% |
Pull-rate model
Fates Collide packs hold 10 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.
| Slot | Outcome | Est. chance |
|---|---|---|
| Reverse Holo | Reverse Holo | 100% |
| Rare slot | Rare | 57% |
| Rare slot | Rare Holo | 19% |
| Rare slot | BREAK | 7.5% |
| Rare slot | Pokémon-EX | 12% |
| Rare slot | Full Art (Ultra) | 3% |
| Rare slot | Secret Rare | 1.5% |
Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.
FAQ
How many packs are in a Fates Collide booster box?
36 packs of 10 cards each. Elite Trainer Boxes from the XY era hold 8 packs, but no ETB listing is tracked for Fates Collide, so the live table covers loose packs and the 36-pack box only.
What are the chase cards in Fates Collide?
The gold Secret Rare Alakazam-EX and the full-art Umbreon-EX lead, followed by full-art M Alakazam-EX, the regular Umbreon-EX, Lugia BREAK and full-art Glaceon-EX. The full-art Team Rocket's Handiwork is the priciest Trainer.
How often do BREAK cards show up in Fates Collide packs?
The model gives BREAK cards a 7.5% share of the rare slot, about 1 in 13 packs by community estimate. They compete with EX cards, full arts and the Secret Rare for that single slot, since XY-era packs have no separate hit slot.
What are the odds a Booster Pack of Fates Collide pays for itself?
About 3% after ~15% selling fees (5% before fees) as of 2026-10-27, computed from the exact outcome distribution of the Fates Collide pack model rather than a simulation. The median Booster Pack returns $2.32 of cards after fees against its $43.78 price, and the chance of at least doubling your money is 2%. These odds refresh with every two-hourly price update.
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