Right now: the best rip in Fates Collide is the Booster Pack at $44.67 against $9.71 of expected pulls — a −82% margin after ~15% selling fees, and a 3% chance it actually pays for itself. Figures refresh every two hours.
Fates Collide is a Pokémon set released 2016/05/02. This page tracks whether its sealed products are worth opening: live TCGPlayer market prices for every product, the expected value of the cards inside, and the pull-rate model behind the math.
XY-era pack (10 cards): a reverse holo, and a rare slot where Pokémon-EX land roughly 1 in 8 packs, full arts about 1 in 30 and secret rares about 1 in 70, with BREAK evolutions about 1 in 13. Vintage sealed: prices are collector premiums, so rip margins are deeply negative by design — the singles market is the real signal, and pokemontcg.io prices it. Elite Trainer Boxes of this era hold 8 packs. Pull rates are community estimates.
Sealed products: price vs. expected value
| Product | Margin after ~15% fees | Market price | EV of pulls | Odds it pays for itself |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | −82% | $44.67 | $9.71 | 3% |
| Booster Box (36 packs) | −89% | $2754.99 | $349.71 | 0% |
Pull-rate model
Fates Collide packs hold 10 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.
| Slot | Outcome | Est. chance |
|---|---|---|
| Reverse Holo | Reverse Holo | 100% |
| Rare slot | Rare | 57% |
| Rare slot | Rare Holo | 19% |
| Rare slot | BREAK | 7.5% |
| Rare slot | Pokémon-EX | 12% |
| Rare slot | Full Art (Ultra) | 3% |
| Rare slot | Secret Rare | 1.5% |
Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.
FAQ
What are the odds a Booster Pack of Fates Collide pays for itself?
About 3% after ~15% selling fees (5% before fees) as of 2026-09-11, computed from the exact outcome distribution of the Fates Collide pack model rather than a simulation. The median Booster Pack returns $2.08 of cards after fees against its $44.67 price, and the chance of at least doubling your money is 2%. These odds refresh with every two-hourly price update.
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