Right now: the best rip in BREAKthrough is the Booster Pack at $65.53 against $11.33 of expected pulls — a −85% margin after ~15% selling fees, and a 2% chance it actually pays for itself. Figures refresh every two hours.
BREAKthrough (November 4, 2015) is the eighth XY-series set and the first to add BREAK evolutions to the rare slot. Packs hold 10 cards: a reverse holo plus one rare slot shared by holos, EX cards, BREAKs, full arts and secrets, no separate hit slot. As vintage sealed, packs and the Elite Trainer Box trade at collector premiums, so rip margins model deeply negative by design.
Community estimates put a Pokémon-EX at roughly 1 in 8 packs, a BREAK about 1 in 13, a full art near 1 in 30 and a Secret Rare around 1 in 70. Mewtwo owns the chase list: two Secret Rare Mewtwo-EX prints lead, followed by two full-art M Mewtwo-EX and two full-art Mewtwo-EX, with full-art M Houndoom-EX the first non-Mewtwo card to appear.
Two products are listed: loose Booster Packs and the 8-pack Elite Trainer Box; no 36-pack booster box listing is tracked for this set. The ETB's collector pricing spreads across only eight packs, so it usually models far worse per pack than loose packs. The live table pairs each sealed price with a fee-adjusted EV from community-estimated rates and current singles prices, refreshed every couple of hours.
Sealed products: price vs. expected value
| Product | Margin after ~15% fees | Market price | EV of pulls | Odds it pays for itself |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | −85% | $65.53 | $11.33 | 2% |
| Elite Trainer Box | −95% | $1499.00 | $90.62 | 0% |
Pull-rate model
BREAKthrough packs hold 10 cards; the slots below are the ones that carry value.
| Slot | Outcome | Est. chance |
|---|---|---|
| Reverse Holo | Reverse Holo | 100% |
| Rare slot | Rare | 57% |
| Rare slot | Rare Holo | 19% |
| Rare slot | BREAK | 7.5% |
| Rare slot | Pokémon-EX | 12% |
| Rare slot | Full Art (Ultra) | 3% |
| Rare slot | Secret Rare | 1.5% |
Community-estimated rates — no publisher discloses official pull odds. The calculator prices each outcome from live singles data.
FAQ
How many packs are in a BREAKthrough Elite Trainer Box?
Eight packs, standard for XY-era ETBs, each with 10 cards. Booster boxes of the era hold 36 packs, but no BREAKthrough box listing is tracked, so the live table compares loose packs against the ETB.
What are the chase cards in BREAKthrough?
Both Secret Rare Mewtwo-EX prints top the list, followed by the two full-art M Mewtwo-EX cards and two full-art Mewtwo-EX cards. Full-art M Houndoom-EX and the regular M Mewtwo-EX are the next tier down.
How often do BREAK cards show up in BREAKthrough packs?
The model gives BREAK cards a 7.5% share of the rare slot, about 1 in 13 packs by community estimate, spread across six BREAK cards. They compete with EX cards, full arts and secrets for that one slot; XY-era packs have no separate hit slot.
What are the odds a Booster Pack of BREAKthrough pays for itself?
About 2% after ~15% selling fees (3% before fees) as of 2026-10-27, computed from the exact outcome distribution of the BREAKthrough pack model rather than a simulation. The median Booster Pack returns $2.44 of cards after fees against its $65.53 price, and the chance of at least doubling your money is 2%. These odds refresh with every two-hourly price update.
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